The Florida Gators are the defending NCAA national basketball champs, but a return visit to the Final Four could be a tough road.
The No. 1 team in the nation in 2025 has earned the top seed in the South Region, but the road to Indianapolis will likely require a meeting with either the Houston Cougars or the Illinois Fighting Illini — both of whom are elite in their own right.
Here's a breakdown of the South Region:
Odds to win the South Region
| Team |  |
Covers' Take |
|---|---|---|
 (1) Florida Gators |
+160 | SEC’s top-ranked high-octane offense |
 (2) Houston Cougars |
+250 | Nation’s most stifling interior defense |
 (3) Illinois Fighting Illini |
+320 | Elite scoring and veteran leadership |
 (4) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
+1500 | Sharpshooters thrive in transition game |
 (5) Vanderbilt Commodores |
+1000 | SEC tourney’s hottest surprise team |
 (6) North Carolina Tar Heels |
+6500 | Explosive backcourt fuels deep run |
 (7) Saint Mary's Gaels |
+4500 | Disciplined play slows game down |
 (8) Clemson Tigers |
+7500 | Physicality dominates the paint area |
 (9) Iowa Hawkeyes |
+4000 | High-scoring unit pushes the pace |
 (10) Texas A&M Aggies |
+10000 | Relentless rebounding wins extra possessions |
 (11) VCU Rams |
+15000 | Aggressive pressure forces constant turnovers |
 (12) McNeese Cowboys |
+40000 | Upset-minded with elite defensive metrics |
 (13) Troy Trojans |
+40000 | Deep bench generates plenty of reserve energy |
 (14) Penn Quakers |
+40000 | Three-point skills could keep them close |
 (15) Idaho Vandals |
+40000 | Dangerous scorers with nothing to lose |
 (16) Prairie View A&M Panthers |
+40000 | Fast-paced attack could test favorites |
 (16) Lehigh Mountain Hawks |
+40000 | Balanced roster seeking historic upset |
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South Region Favorite: Florida Gators
Defending a national championship is extraordinarily difficult — even if your elite starting frontcourt is returning. But Florida asserted itself well this season, finishing as the top rebounding team in the nation while boasting a Top 10 offense to get the nod as the South's top dog.
- The Path: Florida will open its title defense against either Prairie View A&M or Lehigh, followed by a second-round date with the winner of the Clemson-Iowa tilt.
- The Concern: It's a small wonder Florida wound up with a No. 1 seed, and not just because of the seven losses: The Gators can't shoot free throws (234th nationally in FT%) or 3-pointers (327th in 3PT%). I'd call those "concerns", especially once the competition level rises (hat tip to Houston).
South Region Cinderella: McNeese Cowboys
This bracket's Cinderella wears a (figurative) cowboy hat. And these pardners know how to ball — especially on the defensive end, where McNeese holds opponents to just 67 points per game behind some truly soul-crushing on-ball pressure.
- The Matchup: No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) vs. No. 12 McNeese
- The X-Factor: On a team full of sticky-fingered defenders, G Tavohn Garcia might be the most impressive. Garcia led the team in steals per game (1.8) and showed off his scoring prowess last time out, pouring in a season-high 31 points in the Southland Conference title-clinching win over Stephen F. Austin.
COVERS INTEL: McNeese's stifling defense forces nearly 17 turnovers per game, second-most in Division I; it also ranks No. 1 in opponent turnover rate (21%) and average turnover margin (7.3). The Cowboys placed five players in the Top 12 in steals in the conference.South Region Schedule
Thursday, March 19
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy, 12:40 p.m. ET
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese, 3:15 p.m. ET
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth, 6:50 p.m.
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Texas A&M, 7:35 p.m. ET
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn, 9:25 p.m.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho, 10:10 p.m. ET
Friday, March 20
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa, 6:50 p.m.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh, 9:25 p.m.
3 South Region futures to bet now
North Carolina to Make the Sweet Sixteen (+550): This is a crazy number given the Tar Heels only need two wins to cash. Sure, a potential second-round matchup with Illinois is daunting, and yes, Caleb Wilson is out for the year.
But these teams have very similar offensive profiles; the biggest difference is the Illini are much, much better from the line. They're also No. 2 in fewest free throws allowed, so that might not even matter.
Houston to Make the Elite Eight (+105): I know. It's March Madness — not March Normalcy — but how are we getting plus-money value on the No. 5 team in the nation to make the final eight?
This team takes care of the basketball as well as any in the nation, and frustrates even the best teams on the strength of the NCAA's No. 2 scoring defense. Whoever makes it out of the potential Illinois-UNC matchup is in for a rough time against the Cougars.
Houston to Win the South Region (+250): Do you ever make one bet, and subsequently talk yourself instantly into another? Guilty as charged!
I like my Elite Eight argument so much I'm taking the Cougars to get to the Final Four. Florida's gifted, for sure, but that Houston defense is on another level. In a tournament setting where possessions are more precious than usual, I'll take the ball hounds every time.
South Region history and betting trends
- Four of the previous six South Region champions have carried odds of +400 or better.
- The region hosted the first-ever win by a No. 16 seed in tournament history, as UMBC stunned No. 1 Virginia in 2018.
- Only two South teams have won multiple NCAA titles: North Carolina (six) and Florida (three).
