Northern Kentucky vs Houston Predictions, Odds, and Picks: No Second Wind for Norse

The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars face off against the No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky Norsemen in the Round of 64 on Thursday night, and we've got your best March Madness picks.

The Cougars are the favorite to win their first national title in school history while the Norseman are in their third NCAA Tournament since transitioning to Div 1 in 2013.

March Madness odds opened with the Cougars as 19.5-point favorites and the Over/Under at 122.5. With such a massive spread I let you know where the value lies with my best free Northern Kentucky vs. Houston college basketball picks for March 15. 

Northern Kentucky vs Houston best odds

Northern Kentucky vs Houston picks and predictions

Often when betting on a game with a big spread, it makes sense to consider the first-half line when backing a fave in case they take their foot off the pedal after building a big lead. However, in this case, I actually think taking the smaller second-half spread of -8.5 has better value. 

First, let's discuss the elephant in the room: the questionable status of Houston's Marcus Sasser who is an AP All-American and averages 17.1 points, 3.2 assists, and 1.7 steals per game.

Although the Cougars will doubtless miss Sasser if he can't play, they have the depth and talent to blow out a team like Northern Kentucky even without him. Keep in mind that they made an Elite Eight run last year despite season-ending injuries to Sasser and another starting guard in Tramon Mark.

Houston has been blowing out inferior opponents all season, and that includes in the second half of games, where they have an average scoring margin of plus-7.6 ppg. 

Northern Kentucky has a tendency to fade in the second half, which makes when you consider its poor depth and their reliance on Marques Warrick to get buckets. Warrick was named the Horizon League MVP but has logged 37.8 minutes per game over the last five contests and could get tired legs down the stretch after being run through the wringer by Houston. 

The Norsemen had an average second-half scoring margin of minus-8.7 ppg in their 12 defeats this season and were outscored after halftime in 11 of those contests. They were outscored by at least 14 points in the second half against Wright State, Youngstown State, Milwaukee, Florida Gulf Coast, and Kent State, and I expect the same to happen against a significantly better Houston team. 

My best bet: Houston second half -8.5 (-116 at FanDuel)

Northern Kentucky vs Houston spread analysis

Houston is coming off a 75-65 loss to Memphis in the AAC Conference Tournament finals but the Cougars have a more important championship that they're focused on. Sasser missed that game with a groin injury but was seen warming up. While his status for Thursday is up in the air, it seems likely that he'd tough it out if the Cougars were facing a more formidable opponent. 

If Sasser doesn't suit up, five-star freshman Terrance Arceneaux will replace him in the starting lineup while Jarace Walker (11.1 ppg), J'Wan Roberts (10.4 ppg), Jamal Shead (10.3 ppg), and Mark (9.7 ppg) pick up the scoring slack. 

That defeat to Memphis snapped a 13-game winning streak for the Cougars, who had previously beaten Memphis twice this season. The Cougars lost just two games all season, a close defeat to an Alabama team that is currently ranked No. 1 in the country and a 56-55 home loss to Temple which they proved was a fluke in hammering the Owls by 16 points on the road two weeks later.

Despite dominating inferior opponents and boasting the best scoring margin in the country (+18.5 ppg), Houston has gone just 2-7 against the spread over the last month.

The Norsemen are 7-1 straight up and ATS over their last eight games. In their most recent contest, they edged Cleveland State 63-61 to claim the Horizon League title.

Despite an impressive 22-12 record, Northern Kentucky has been blown out several times this season with half of those defeats coming by at least 15 points. 

Warrick leads NKU with 19.1 ppg on 44/39/81 shooting splits. There's a big dropoff after him with Sam Vinson second on the team in scoring with 11.7 ppg on 39.6% shooting and nobody else averaging more than 9.0 ppg. 

Northern Kentucky vs Houston Over/Under analysis

It's always tough to handicap totals for Cougars games because they're so dominant on both ends of the floor.

That said, they do tend to play at an extremely slow pace and the Norseman are actually even slower, which is why we're seeing the lowest total for a Cougars game since the new year.

Northern Kentucky is 28th in the country in scoring defense (63.3) but is actually vulnerable on that end of the floor and ranks outside the Top 200 in opponent effective field goal percentage (51.3%). That low number of points allowed is due in large part to the Norsemen ranking 358th in adjusted tempo.

Meanwhile, the Cougars are 344th in adjusted tempo and hold foes to just 56.3 ppg on 42.5 EFG% — the third-best number in the country. 

Northern Kentucky vs Houston betting trend to know

The Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northern Kentucky vs. Houston.

Northern Kentucky vs Houston game info

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