March Madness is almost at an end, with the Final Four set to give us two outstanding national semifinals on Saturday.
Both games are worthy of this round, and in two tight matchups, I like the odds we’re getting with the Connecticut Huskies and Arizona Wildcats for my Final Four parlay.
Let’s take a closer look at these matchups as I dive into my free March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4.
Today’s best March Madness parlay: Saturday, April 4
UConn moneyline
Arizona moneyline
UConn moneyline
The UConn Huskies may only be in the Final Four due to Braylon Mullins’ incredible game-winner against the Duke Blue Devils last weekend, but they’re no less deserving than any of the other teams playing for the title. Fueled by an outstanding defense that ranks ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency via KenPom, Connecticut is holding opponents to just 40.5% shooting from the field this year while allowing an average of 65.2 ppg.
The Illinois Fighting Illini rate out slightly better in most analytics, but there is reason to like UConn here, especially getting a plus number. For one, we’ve already seen the Huskies win this matchup this season, beating Illinois 74-61 back in November at Madison Square Garden.
And while it’s nitpicking at this point, the Illini are the weakest defensive squad left in the tournament, which concerns me in a game in which every possession could be meaningful down the stretch. That’s enough for me to take UConn to spring a minor upset and make the final.
Arizona moneyline
While the other side of the bracket isn’t exactly weak, it’s easy to see why some people are regarding the game between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats as the virtual national championship game. These are arguably the top two teams and the top two defenses in the country, and both are incredibly dangerous with the ball as well, ranking in the top five nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Both teams have blasted their way through the tournament so far, with neither having won by 10 points or fewer in any game thus far. But if we are looking for form to somehow separate these teams, it’s Arizona that comes in a little hotter. The Wildcats have now won 13 straight, including a 15-point victory over the Purdue Boilermakers in the Elite Eight — the same team that handed Michigan its last loss.
It’s rare to see two teams match up more evenly statistically, and anyone who says they can guarantee which way this game will go is lying to you. But the Wildcats are just a touch deeper with more reliable scoring options — Brayden Burries (16.1 ppg) and Koa Peat (14.1 ppg) have been outstanding throughout the tournament — and haven’t lost a game since Valentine’s Day. I’m taking the slight plus number and rolling with Arizona in this one.
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