March Madness oddsmakers are big fans of the Michigan Wolverines to escape the Midwest Region — but can the top seeds overcome a devastating late-season injury to a key reserve?
The Wolverines are preparing to justify their -125 odds of reaching the Final Four, but they'll have to do it without standout bench guard L.J. Cason, who suffered a season-ending knee injury at the end of February. Michigan hasn't been the same without him, and will face a major challenge from No. 2 Iowa State if both reach the Elite Eight.
Here's a breakdown of the Midwest Region:
Odds to win the Midwest Region
| Team |  |
Covers' Take |
|---|---|---|
 (1) Michigan Wolverines |
-125 | Cason injury impacts title favorites |
 (2) Iowa State Cyclones |
+290 | Stifling defense forces elite turnovers |
 (3) Virginia Cavaliers |
+1000 | Slowest tempo with elite efficiency |
 (4) Alabama Crimson Tide |
+1600 | Holloway's arrest is very bad for the Tide |
 (5) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
+2000 | Gritty defense thrives in physical games |
 (6) Tennessee Volunteers |
+1500 | Knecht leads veteran scoring group |
 (7) Kentucky Wildcats |
+4000 | Freshman talent fuels offensive ceiling |
 (8) Georgia Bulldogs |
+5500 | Late-season surge secures tourney bid |
 (9) Saint Louis Billikens |
+12500 | Billikens riding hot scoring streak |
 (10) Santa Clara Broncos |
+10000 | Dangerous shooters from the perimeter |
 (11) Miami (Ohio) Redhawks |
+40000 | MAC champions boast defensive grit |
 (11) SMU Mustangs |
+15000 | Mustangs' athletic roster creates mismatches |
 (12) Akron Zips |
+40000 | Zips thrive on veteran leadership |
 (13) Hofstra Pride |
+40000 | High-volume shooters hunt Round 1 upset |
 (14) Wright State Raiders |
+40000 | Raiders' high-octane offense scoring big |
 (15) Tennessee State Tigers |
+40000 | Scrappy unit wins OVC crown |
 (16) UMBC Retrievers |
+40000 | Historic underdog seeks repeat magic |
 (16) Howard Bison |
+40000 | Harris anchors efficient Bison attack |
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Midwest Region Favorite: Michigan Wolverines
Sitting atop the KenPom defensive ratings will buy you plenty of slack from fans, bettors, and bracket enthusiasts — even if you head into the tournament looking less like the best version of yourself. Michigan is flawed, but who among us isn't? (Put your hand down.)
- The Path: The Wolverines open against either UMBC (look out!) or Howard, with a win vaulting them into a second-round encounter with the winner of the Georgia-Saint Louis first-round tilt. None of these teams should give Michigan much trouble.
- The Concern: Cason's absence is a serious blow to Michigan's depth and overall team flow. This is still a big, brutish team that can win with physicality or finesse, but will they have enough reserve power when the starters need a break?
Midwest Region Cinderella: Santa Clara Broncos
Foul shots? Who needs 'em? Certainly not Steve Nash's alma mater, which qualified for its first March Madness tournament since Nash broke Maryland's heart in a first-round shocker 30 years earlier. And don't sweat the Santa Clara Broncos' aversion to free throws: This team averages nearly 65 shot attempts per game, fifth-most in Division I.
- The Matchup: No. 7 Kentucky (-3.5) vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
- The X-Factor: F Allen Graves is third on the Broncos in scoring, but he's arguably the team's most important player. Graves averages a modest 11.6 points in just over 22 minutes per game, but it's his 6.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals that tell the real story of his impact on this upstart Santa Clara roster.
COVERS INTEL: Graves led the West Coast Conference and ranked sixth overall in the NCAA in Player Efficiency Rating (29.6) as a freshman.Midwest Region Schedule
Thursday, March 19
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 UMBC or Howard, 7:10 p.m. ET
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis, 9:45 p.m. ET
Friday, March 20
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara, 12:15 p.m. ET
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron, 12:40 p.m. ET
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State, 1:50 p.m. ET
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State, 2:50 p.m. ET
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra, 3:15 p.m. ET
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) or SMU, 4:25 p.m. ET
3 Midwest Region futures to bet now
Texas Tech to Make the Sweet Sixteen (+135 at bet365): This is less about the Red Raiders' 3-point prowess (though they are the No. 5 3PT shooting team in the nation) and more about Aden Holloway's pre-tournament arrest on two felony drug charges. It's a massive blow to Alabama and makes Texas Tech a great value play here.
Virginia to Make the Elite Eight (+290 at bet365): This is essentially taking the Cavaliers to beat Iowa State (assuming both teams do as expected and make it to Week 2). Both teams have blown the doors off the competition, but Virginia's defense has been a touch better. There isn't enough separating these teams to warrant Virginia having such low odds of winning three tournament games.
Virginia to Win the Midwest Region (+1000 at bet365): Why not go all the way? The Cavaliers rank inside the top 10 nationally in several key defensive categories, and the Wolverines have looked as disjointed over the past 6-7 games as they have all season. Did the Wolverines' loss to Purdue portend a possible tournament hiccup? The scenario is worth a minor investment.
Midwest Region history and betting trends
- Favorites have dominated of late, with four of the previous five Midwest champions boasting odds of +375 or better.
- The 2015 Kentucky Wildcats are the shortest Midwest favorites in pre-tournament odds history, dating back to 2010, going in as -350 faves (and winning the region).
- The Midwest is the only region with just two teams at shorter than +1000 to advance to the Final Four.
