Merry Christmas, college hoops fans — the 2026 NCAA Tournament arrives with a full slate of games on Thursday.
From the opening tip of TCU vs. Ohio State to the nightcap of Idaho vs. Houston, there are 16 games of March Madness on opening day that provide betting opportunities.
Here are my March Madness picks against the spread for each one of Thursday’s games.
March Madness picks against the spread for Thursday, March 19
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 TCU vs  Ohio State |
(-2.5) |
 Troy vs  Nebraska |
(-13) |
 South Florida vs  Louisville |
(+5) |
 High Point vs  Wisconsin |
(-10) |
 Siena vs  Duke |
(+28.5) |
 McNeese State vs  Vanderbilt |
(-11.5) |
 North Dakota State vs  Michigan State |
(+16.5) |
 Hawaii vs  Arkansas |
(-15) |
 VCU vs  North Carolina |
(-2.5) |
 Howard vs  Michigan |
(-31) |
 Texas vs  BYU |
(-2.5) |
 Texas A&M vs  Saint Mary's |
(-3) |
 Penn vs  Illinois |
(+24.5) |
 Saint Louis vs  Georgia |
(-2) |
 Kennesaw State vs  Gonzaga |
(-20.5) |
 Idaho vs  Houston |
(+23.5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Round 1 picks for Thursday
No. 9 TCU vs No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5): Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State has been the better team lately, ranking 36 spots higher in BartTorvik since the start of February. The Buckeyes have the much more accomplished offense, ranking 16th in effective field goal percentage in that span (TCU 304th). It helps to have two go-to guards (Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr.) in March.
No. 13 Troy vs No. 4 Nebraska (-13): Nebraska -13
Nebraska is hungry for its first-ever March Madness victory and will give a strong showing against a very beatable opponent. The Cornhuskers are a well-coached team under Fred Hoiberg and rank within the Top 15 at KenPom. Troy simply isn’t very good at anything in particular and had the nation’s 226th most-difficult schedule (yawn).
No. 11 South Florida vs No. 6 Louisville (-5): South Florida +5
There are glaring issues with Louisville, which went 3-7 in Quad-1 games on the road and ranks 357th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home grade and 363rd in Paper Tiger Factor. USF is one of the hottest teams in the country, carrying an 11-game win streak (8-3 ATS in that span) into the Big Dance.
No. 12 High Point vs No. 5 Wisconsin: Wisconsin -10
High Point will be a trendy pick given its 14-game winning streak, but keep in mind that the Panthers didn’t play a single team ranked within KenPom’s Top 150 during that stretch and have the No. 341 strength of schedule. Flynn Clayman’s squad forces 16.4 turnovers per game (third nationally), but Wisconsin has great guard play, takes care of the ball (8.9 turnovers per game, ninth nationally), and is red hot (No. 9 on BartTorvik since February 1).
No. 16 Siena vs No. 1 Duke: Siena +28.5
Duke will likely be without two starters (Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, combined +15.5 BPR) and is simply in survive-and-advance mode. Siena is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games and will slow down the pace (319th in adjusted tempo) to limit possessions, making it difficult to find a margin.
No. 12 McNeese State vs No. 5 Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt -11.5
McNeese has covered the spread just seven times in 18 games outside of Lake Charles and checks in at 334th in Away From Home grade. The Cowboys lost by 12+ to both Santa Clara (67-79) and Michigan (71-112) in their only two games against March Madness teams.
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No. 14 North Dakota State vs No. 3 Michigan State: North Dakota State +16.5
This will be a slugfest as both teams play at a slow tempo, crash the boards, and have a defense-first identity. The Bison force opponents outside the arc (364th in 3-point rate over the last month), and that’s not Sparty’s strong suit (7.7 made threes per game). Tom Izzo’s squad doesn’t play well outside of East Lansing (290th in Away From Home grade) and is in the midst of a cold stretch (220th in Momentum).
No. 13 Hawaii vs No. 5 Arkansas: Arkansas -15
Arkansas has the lowest turnover rate in the country (10.7%), whereas Hawaii apparently loves to give the ball away, ranking 318th with a 16.5% turnover rate. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t efficient on offense (212th in adjusted efficiency), went 0-4 in Quad-2 games, and faced the No. 230 strength of schedule.
No. 11 VCU vs No. 6 North Carolina: North Carolina -2.5
VCU has pretty metrics, but the Rams are 2-4 in Quad-1 games and rely on getting to the line on offense. That makes this a tough matchup as UNC is the third-best team at avoiding fouls.
No. 16 Howard vs No. 1 Michigan: Michigan -31
This one will attract a lot of Howard attention as the Bison are on a remarkable 12-1 ATS run, whereas Michigan is 0-5 ATS since the L.J. Cason injury. Here’s the thing — all that does is create value on an elite Wolverines squad against a 16 seed that faced the No. 364 strength of schedule and was blown out by Duke (56-93), Missouri (67-88), and even Northwestern (60-80) in its only three games against Power Conference opponents.
No. 11 Texas vs No. 6 BYU: BYU -2.5
BYU has the best player in this tournament (A.J. Dybansta) — and also the second best player in this game (Robert Wright) — which has to be enough to win at least one game, right? The Cougars have kept chugging along offensively since the Richie Saunders injury and just need to find enough stops against a Texas team that similarly plays little defense.
No. 10 Texas A&M vs No. 7 Saint Mary's: Saint Mary's -3
If Saint Mary’s can control the pace (298th in adjusted tempo to A&M’s 29th) at all, it should win. The Gaels have the superior metrics everywhere you look and face a free-falling A&M squad that ranks 344th in Momentum and 322nd in Paper Tiger Factor.
No. 14 Penn vs No. 3 Illinois: Penn +24.5
Penn has been an undervalued team in the market, covering 16 of its last 18 games. The Quakers are consistent, play well away from home, and have momentum. The Ivy League has shown well in the Round of 64 lately.
No. 9 Saint Louis vs No. 8 Georgia: Georgia -2
I’m siding with Georgia in the Battle of Epic Pace due to Saint Louis’ poor form and inability to travel well. The Billikens are 0-4 ATS in their last four and rank outside BartTorvik’s Top 100 since February 1. They’re 4-9-1 ATS outside of Chaifetz Arena and rank a ghastly 364th in Away From Home grade.
No. 9 Kennesaw State vs No. 3 Gonzaga: Gonzaga -20.5
Kennesaw doesn’t do much of anything well, whereas Gonzaga ranks 10th in KenPom and has an elite defense (ninth in adjusted efficiency). The Owls are reliant on getting to the rim offensively, which is a point of no entry against Graham Ike & Co.
No. 15 Idaho vs No. 2 Houston: Idaho +23.5
Idaho’s metrics are better than you might expect from a No. 15 seed. The Vandals have a Top-75 defense over the last month and rank third in defensive rebounding — a necessary strength from any mid-major against a Houston team whose MO is to crash the offensive glass.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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