The LSU Tigers will look for a resume-boosting win as they travel to Knoxville for an SEC showdown with the Tennessee Volunteers on Wednesday night. Our college basketball odds have the Vols favored to win by double digits.
The Tigers are just 2-6 against Quad 1 opponents this season, and a 12-9 record has them out of the NCAA Tournament discussion. LSU is ranked 91st in the NET and needs a strong finish to get into the bubble conversation, and a win at Tennessee would be a key step towards salvaging the season.
The Vols are coming off an impressive showing against Kentucky in which they jumped out to an early 16-5 lead at Rupp Arena and never looked back. Dalton Knecht had a below-average performance by his standards, but a big game from Zakai Zeigler was the catalyst for the victory.
Our college basketball picks and predictions for LSU vs. Tennessee on Wednesday, February 7 look at the matchup and explain why it’ll be a long night for the Tigers.
LSU vs Tennessee best odds
LSU vs Tennessee picks and predictions
It’s been a rough season for the LSU Tigers, but things have been particularly painful away from home. They're just 1-4 in away contests and are scoring nine points fewer on the road than at home. Making matters worse, they’re allowing 80.6 points per game away from home vs. just 71.4 in front of their home fans.
The Tigers most recently hit the road to face Alabama, and the Tide worked them 109-88 behind a dominant second-half performance. The Tide posted 59 points after halftime and held LSU to just four baskets over the final 6:42.
The Tigers rebounded with a home win over Arkansas this weekend, but have lost four of their last six conference games and three straight on the road. One was a similar blowout loss at Auburn in which a 12-2 run for the hosts blew the game open before halftime and stretched it further with a 22-9 run after the break.
LSU’s biggest issue in the losses at Auburn and Alabama came on the defensive end. The Tigers allowed offensive efficiency marks of 122.7 to Auburn, and 138.7 to Alabama. The Tide hurt the Tigers on the glass as well, hauling in 36.7% of their missed attempts for second-chance efforts.
The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a win over Kentucky in which they punished the Wildcats in that area. The Vols recorded an offensive rebound on nearly 43% of their misses, leading to 22 second-chance points. They also racked up 42 points in the paint and shut down the Wildcats near the rim as they allowed just 30 points in the paint.
The Wildcats were just 12-for-23 at the rim as the Vols blocked four shots and altered many others. Jonas Aidoo had a strong performance and is the kind of presence that will cause problems for LSU.
The Tigers struggle mightily if they’re unable to get easy baskets at the rim or get to the foul line. They’re shooting just 33% on 2-point shots outside the paint, and they’ll need to rely on their outside shooting to keep them in this game.
Unfortunately, it won’t matter unless they go nuts from beyond the arc. Tennessee ranks seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, and fourth in 2-point defense. The Vols also don’t turn the ball over much, which will negate LSU’s frantic defensive pressure.
LSU will get punished by giving up offensive boards, as the Vols should either get some easy points from putbacks. They’ll also likely get some kick-outs for open 3-point shots, which isn’t what you want to give up to the team that just went 12-for-30 from downtown against Kentucky.
The Vols will be locked in after losing at home to South Carolina a week ago, and Zeigler will have confidence after an amazing showing against the Wildcats. Look for Knecht to bounce back and Tennessee to take care of business against an LSU team that simply isn’t consistent on the road.
My best bet: Tennessee -13.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
LSU vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee -13.5
Dalton Knecht to score 20+ points
Will Baker Under 4.5 rebounds
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When LSU faced Alabama, guard Mark Sears scored 21 points despite missing all five of his outside attempts. Five of LSU’s last six games have seen an opposing player go for 18+, with two of those contests featuring multiple players doing so. Knecht will bounce back and get to the 20-point mark here.
Will Baker is coming off a strong game against Arkansas in which he scored 25 points, but he managed just two rebounds in the game and has just 13 rebounds combined in his last four contests. Tennessee’s outstanding rebounding ability will keep him Under this total.
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LSU vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
Tennessee opened at -14.5 on the betting market, but the number has since shifted to -13.5 or -14 depending on the book.
LSU is 6-4 ATS over the last 10 games and just 1-3 in its last four as underdogs. This includes losing to Alabama by 21 as 13-point dogs. However, its lone road win was a 15-point victory over Texas A&M in which they were getting 11.5 points.
The Vols are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 and have failed to cover in their last two conference games as double-digit favorites. That includes an outright defeat to South Carolina at home in which they were favored by 14 points. However, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
There hasn’t been any real movement on the total, despite it coming down briefly to 151.5 overnight. The total is back to its opening line of 152.5 or 153, depending on where you play it.
The last two games for LSU have gone Over, as have five of their last seven. Both of the most recent Overs had pre-game totals above the one for this game. As for Tennessee, it’s seen the Over hit in five of the last eight contests, including a 195-point outing in the win over Kentucky that covered by nearly 40 points.
The total will come down to LSU’s defense — ranked 62nd in effective field goal percentage — against a Tennessee offense ranked 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency. If LSU can’t keep the Vols off the offensive glass, the odds of an Over go way up.
LSU vs Tennessee betting trend to know
The Under is 12-8 in Tennessee’s last 20 home games (+3.25 units / 15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Tennessee.
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LSU vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
LSU vs Tennessee key injuries
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