The Nevada Wolfpack look to stay hot when they welcome the Liberty Flames on Saturday night in the second round of the NIT.
Vaughn Weems has been dominant of late for the Wolfpack, and my Liberty vs. Nevada predictions explain why he’s poised to have another big game.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, March 21.
Liberty vs Nevada prediction
Who will win Liberty vs Nevada?
Nevada: The Wolfpack are 16-2 at home this season, with nine wins in a row following the 14-point victory over Murray State. Liberty’s defense has been nearly non-existent in its last 10 games, and lost four of its last seven games — with all four defeats coming against Quad-3 and Quad-4 opponents. Nevada’s superior size and dominance on the glass will offset Liberty’s ability to score.
Liberty vs Nevada best bet: Vaughn Weems Over 15.5 points (+100)
Vaughn Weems is primed to have a big game against the Liberty Flames. He’s averaging 16.6 points over his last eight games, and has made seven baskets at the rim in each of his last two.
That will likely be his primary focus against a Liberty team whose starting lineup averages a hair over 6-foot-2 and struggles to rebound.
Weems has four offensive boards in the last two contests, leading to second-chance points and FT attempts.
This is a perfect spot for him to continue to assert himself and get whatever he wants at the rim.
COVERS INTEL: The Flames have allowed a staggering 118 close-range baskets over their last seven games.
Liberty vs Nevada same-game parlay
Liberty’s defensive struggles will be exacerbated by the Nevada Wolf Pack's outside shooting.
The Wolfpack rank 54th in the country in 3-point accuracy, bad news for a Liberty defense allowing opponents to hit better than 38% from deep. Add in Nevada’s height advantage, and it’s a spot where the Flames will fail to cover for the ninth time in 11 games.
Both teams have been clearing their recent totals. The Over is 12-6 in Nevada’s last 18, while the Over has cashed in 10 of 13 for Liberty.
Liberty vs Nevada SGP
- Nevada -7.5
- Over 146
Our beyond the arc SGP: The Weems and Price show
Elijah Price pulled down 13 rebounds in the win over Murray State and leads the Wolfpack with 8.4 boards per game.
This ties into the same narrative I’ve discussed with the interior defense and height issues on the Liberty side. Price hasn’t hit double-digit scoring in four straight games in part because he can’t stay out of foul trouble.
Liberty shoots a lot of outside efforts and doesn’t draw fouls at a high rate. Extra minutes for Price will lead to elevated scoring, and I expect he’ll flirt with a double-double.
Liberty vs Nevada SGP
- Vaughn Weems Over 15.5 points
- Elijah Price Over 11.5 points
- Vaughn Weems Over 5.5 rebounds
- Elijah Price Over 8.5 rebounds
Liberty vs Nevada odds
- Spread: Liberty +7.5 | Nevada -7.5
- Moneyline: Liberty +300 | Nevada -400
- Over/Under: Over 146 | Under 146
Liberty vs Nevada betting trend to know
Liberty has hit the Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Liberty vs. Nevada.
How to watch Liberty vs Nevada
| Location | Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV |
| Date | Saturday, March 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Liberty vs Nevada key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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