Furman vs Chattanooga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mike Bothwell Lights Up Mocs

One team will earn an NCAA Tournament bid, and one will face the bitter taste of March defeat when the Chattanooga Mocs meet the Furman Paladins for the SoCon Championship.

The Paladins have been the best team in the Southern Conference throughout the season. They are 26-7, won the regular season championship, and are currently in the midst of the longest win streak in the conference at five. They got here via a nail-biting three-point win against Western Carolina.

The Mocs journey here has been quite different. They are the No. 7 seed in this tournament and, as the oddsmakers indicate, are definitely the dark horse here. They've won three games in three days to get here, with the last win coming by 12 over Wofford.

What's the best bet for tonight's Championship matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Chattanooga vs. Furman. 

Furman vs Chattanooga best odds

Furman vs Chattanooga picks and predictions

I want to target these defenses in multiple ways tonight. Both are well below the national average in defensive efficiency: one team ranks 10th in the country in points per game, while the other team has been hot over the last three games. With that in mind, we will take the Over, and we'll talk about that more soon. However, there is even a better bet on the board that I'm targeting for my best bet.

Mike Bothwell is the heart and soul of Furman basketball. The Senior guard has averaged just over 18 points per game in his final season and has scored 35, 13, and 26 points in the conference tournament run. So it feels silly not to target his Over in points tonight when he's one game away from taking his team to the NCAA Tournament.

This game feels like a fitting culmination of a legendary career for Bothwell. He will leave Furman at least sixth all-time in scoring and could reach as high as fifth, so we're targeting him tonight. But his play is certainly not the only reason — the matchup is good.

These two have met twice this season, both of which were Furman wins in which Bothwell scored 22 points and 17 points. 

In that second meeting, Bothwell missed routine and open shots, going 1-for-4 from deep. I don't expect such a strong talent to repeat that performance. I also don't think those looks will be guarded any differently.

Bothwell is the lead pick-and-roll option for his team for obvious reasons. He has posted some absolutely stellar numbers on these sets this season, ranking in the Top 4 percentile in pick-and-roll scoring amongst the entire country.

He shoots just over 48% on these as well. It's also terrible news for the Mocs who struggle here badly, ranking as one of the worst pick-and-roll defenses in the country — allowing nearly .90 points per possession.

This feels too right. One of the best scorers in Furman's history is playing in one of the biggest games of his career in his last year with the school. He has a good matchup and a remarkable ability to create good looks for himself with a shot quality ranking of .98 — a significant number with such a high-usage player. I wouldn't be surprised if he soars Over this.

My best bet: Mike Bothwell Over 17.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Furman vs Chattanooga spread analysis

The steam that this game has taken is quite frankly insane. The spread opened up at Furman favored from 6.5 to 6.0 points, and has dropped to as low as three points. Before the movement, I would have leaned toward the Mocs. They are certainly playing better than Furman now, however, I'm no longer interested. 

My projections make this number around eight points, making it a clear spot to bet on Furman. However, the difference in how these teams have played lately makes me pause. That's not even from the perspective of who can cover, it's more thinking that I can get a better number in-game. The Paladins -2.5 in-game is undoubtedly a play, otherwise, I'll pass here. 

Furman vs Chattanooga Over/Under analysis

I'm throwing a unit on the Over here at 150 on PointsBet. 

I'm seeing this total mispriced by nearly seven points, and if we get a close game — even better. I've spoken about this at length from time to time. Still, teams' desperation to extend their season usually results in more late-game fouling.

That's excellent news for the Over, especially when dealing with two good free-throw-shooting teams. I've already detailed some of the defensive issues that the Mocs have, but Furman has plenty as well. One thing that jumps out is the issues the Paladins have defending spot-up shooters.

They've allowed over 40% shooting there, one of the worst in the conference. Unfortunately for them, that's one of the places where Chattanooga excels. That means there should be plenty of open threes from beyond the arc, and we love that for the Over.

Furman vs Chattanooga betting trend to know

Bothwell has averaged 24.6 points over his last three games, all of which have come during the conference tournament. Find more college basketball betting trends for Furman vs. Chattanooga.

Furman vs Chattanooga game info

Furman vs Chattanooga key injuries

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