The No. 9 Duke Blue Devils head to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles in college basketball action this afternoon.
The Blue Devils are second in the ACC at 10-3 and with a loaded squad, they're poised for a National Title run. Meanwhile, the 'Noles are 7-6 in conference play and will likely miss out on March Madness for the third straight year.
College basketball odds opened with the Blue Devils as 5.5-point road favorites for this clash with the Over/Under at 152.5.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions Duke vs. Florida State on February 17.
Duke vs Florida State best odds
Duke vs Florida State picks and predictions
Considering how far apart these teams are in the KenPom rankings (Duke at No. 12 and FSU at 85), this is a fairly reasonable spread for the road favorites, especially given the recent play of both teams and how they match up against each other.
The Duke Blue Devils have won six of their last seven games with their only stumble coming on the road in Chapel Hill two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Florida State Seminoles are 2-5 straight up and 2-4-1 against the spread in their previous seven contests.
If you expect home-court advantage to play a big role for the 'Noles, keep in mind that they've already lost six games in Tallahassee this season, including embarrassing defeats to Georgia, SMU, and Lipscomb. While the Blue Devils came up short against the No. 7 Tar Heels on the road, that's their only loss in their last five away games with each of those victories coming by at least eight points.
The Seminoles are 58th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency but they match up poorly against a finely-tuned Duke attack that ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The 'Noles are outside the Top 200 in opponent effective field goal percentage (50.8%), 297th in defensive rebounding rate, and 356th in high-quality 3-point attempts allowed per ShotQuality Bets.
Duke is 30th in the country with a 54.8 EFG%, does a good job on the offensive glass, and shoots well from beyond the arc. The best thing about this FSU defense is its ability to pressure ball-handlers ranking 37th in the country in opponent turnover rate (18%). However, the Blue Devils do a fantastic job of taking care of the ball and are 13th in turnover rate (12.1%).
On the other side of the floor, the Seminoles have struggled. Despite playing at a fast pace, the 'Noles have just three players averaging double-digit points and none of them are efficient. Forward Jamir Watkins leads the team with 14.5 ppg on 43.9% shooting while Darin Green Jr. (11.8 ppg) and Primo Spears (10.3 ppg) are shooting just 42% and 35.7%, respectively, from the floor.
This team can't shoot the deep ball (260th in 3-point percentage), settles for far too many midrange shots, and often needs to get to the free throw to generate scoring. The Seminoles don't have the firepower to keep up.
My best bet: Duke -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Duke vs Florida State same-game parlay
Duke -5.5
Jared McCain Over 1.5 made threes
Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 rebounds
The Seminoles are 358th in the country at defending catch-and-shoot threes per ShotQuality Bets while ranking 337th against off-the-dribble threes. Freshman Jared McCain is Duke's best long-distance shooter, knocking down 2.1 treys per game at a 38.5% clip.
Center Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 8.3 rebounds per game and he's poised for a big game on the boards. FSU is also just 265th in rebounding rate and that combined with their speedy tempo and poor shooting means that there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Filipowski.
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Duke vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread hasn't seen any movement from the opening number of -5.5 while the Over/Under has only ticked up half a point from 152 to 152.5.
The Blue Devils are on a roll, going 14-2 SU and 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games. They are one of just 10 teams in the country that rank in the Top 25 of the KenPom ratings on both offense and defense.
The Seminoles are coming off back-to-back defeats, losing 83-75 to Virginia Tech on the road and falling 80-76 to Virginia at home. The 'Noles looked shaky during the non-conference part of their schedule and while they played well at the start of ACC play they've since regressed and have gone 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five.
Duke vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games while the Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Florida State.
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Duke vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, February 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs Florida State key injuries
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