Colorado vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: Can Buffs Challenge Slumping Cats?

There’s a marquee matchup in the desert Thursday night when perhaps the two best teams in the Pac-12 square off as the Colorado Buffaloes face the No. 10 Arizona Wildcats at McKale Center.

Tommy Lloyd’s squad will look for a quick rebound after suffering a shocking 100-82 loss to Stanford on New Year’s Eve which marked Arizona’s third loss in its last five games. 

The Wildcats are expected to get back on track in emphatic fashion. Looking at the college basketball odds, they’re listed at 12.5-point favorites while the total has been set at 161.5.

It’s the total I have my eye on for tonight’s best bet. Check that out below and stay tuned for my free college basketball picks for Colorado vs. Arizona on Thursday, January 4.

Colorado vs Arizona best odds

Colorado vs Arizona picks and predictions

The Arizona Wildcats were shocked on New Year’s Eve, suffering an 18-point loss to a Stanford team that had a losing record entering the game.

Tommy Lloyd’s talented squad is still expected to right the ship quickly and enters Thursday’s marquee matchup ranked third overall in KenPom. They’re a Top-10 unit on both ends of the court, ranking seventh in both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

The wide line of -12.5 may be surprising to some considering the Colorado Buffaloes are a challenging opponent. Tad Boyle’s squad has won 11 of its 13 games to start the year and ranks 22nd in KenPom, which rates behind only Arizona in the Pac-12. 

It’s time to find out just how good this Colorado team is as it hits the road for a three-game road stretch of conference games beginning Thursday night at the McKale Center.

This would normally be a tough matchup, but that’s even more so the case now that Arizona enters this contest with a point to prove. The Wildcats were viewed as arguably the top team in the country just a few weeks ago but have since lowered in prestige after losing three of their last five games, and Lloyd has been vocal about challenging his team to play better — especially defensively.

The big news to monitor here is the status of two of Colorado’s key players. Star forward Tristan da Silva is nursing an ankle injury that's kept him out the last two games while prized freshman Cody Williams is dealing with a wrist injury that's sidelined him since December 3. Boyle said both will make the trip to the McKale Center but it’s unclear if either will play. 

I’m targeting the total with my bet as I’m inclined to take the Under whether or not da Silva and Williams suit up. At this point, it’d be a surprise if we saw both of them take the court. Still, considering they combine for 29.7 points per game, their absence would only give me more confidence in my chosen side. 

Arizona’s recent defensive struggles have been noted by many, but it’s not like one can expect a repeat of Stanford’s incredible 16-for-25 from 3-point range shooting performance.

His team still possesses the length and athleticism to play much better on that end of the court, and it ranks as a Top-10 defense by KenPom’s metrics anyway. I expect them to answer the call here on that end of the court against a potentially shorthanded Buffaloes team that's never won at the McKale Center since joining the Pac-12. 

Both teams like to play with pace and put up some gaudy offensive statistics, but it’s also true that both defensive units grade out as Top-30, according to KenPom’s metrics. Three of the last four meetings between these schools — and seven of the last nine — have gone Under the total, and a similarly low-scoring effort could unfold on Thursday. 

We have a long history of these two head coaches squaring off and most have resulted in more defense than offense, at least compared to bookmakers’ expectations. None of the last 12 meetings have resulted in more than 162 points and considering there’s still a 162.5 available, I’ll snatch up the Under and bet on that run extending to 13 straight games. 

My best bet: Under 162.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Colorado vs Arizona same-game parlay

Under 162.5 

KJ Simpson Over 20.5 points

+337 at FanDuel

I’m taking my best bet on the full-game Under and combining it with a bet on Colorado star guard KJ Simpson to exceed his points prop of 20.5. 

Simpson has been a man-possessed this year, averaging 21.1 ppg to lead his team. He’s among the best guards in the country and is coming off a strong 34-point outing against Washington State. He’s scored 21+ points in four straight games and should continue seeing a massive workload — especially if da Silva and/or Williams are sidelined. 

Simpson leads the team with a 26.9% usage rate while da Silva (22.3%) is second and Williams (21.6%) is tied for third. Regardless of the game script, Boyle’s squad will need their scoring to come from somewhere and Simpson is the obvious answer. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a bit of early movement as Arizona opened as low as -9.5 before jumping to -12.5 across the board. The total was up to 163 for a bit before being bet down to 161.5 at most locations, although 162.5 is also available. Be sure to track any future fluctuations using our line movement tool. 

I’m on the Under as mentioned above and I’m fine playing this line down a few points as the current movement indicates it may drop. 

As for a side, I’d be on Colorado... if I had any confidence in both of their two star players returning from injury. It sounds like Williams has a good chance to return this week, so he could play, while da Silva’s status is completely up in the air.

He was seen with a crutch on the sideline of a recent game and while that’s not encouraging, ankle injuries are a difficult situation to project return dates and the program has not been forthcoming with updates. 

At the current number and with the current information, it’s a stay-away for me. Lloyd has dominated the Buffaloes at the McKale Center, posting a perfect 11-0 record during his tenure, and he’s challenged his squad to get off the mat Thursday night. 

That’s potentially a dangerous position for Boyle’s squad. If the Buffaloes enter the McKale Center injured to face a motivated Wildcats team that grades out Top 10 on both ends of the court, this one could get lopsided in a clear bounceback spot for Lloyd’s talented group.

The situation matters enough to me that the line movement seems justified, and the current number seems more correct. 

Colorado vs Arizona betting trend to know

Seven of the last nine meetings between these schools have gone Under the total (2-7 O/U). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Arizona.

Colorado vs Arizona game info

Colorado vs Arizona key injuries

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