Cincinnati vs Baylor Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Bears Book Spot in Semifinals

Perhaps it was an upset only in seeding, but the Cincinnati Bearcats left no doubt in dusting the depleted Kansas Jayhawks on Wednesday in the Big 12 Tournament bracket. 

Now, we’re going to find out if this run by the 11th seed has some real legs with the Bearcats meeting the No. 3-seeded Baylor Bears in the quarterfinals. Conference tournament odds aren’t ruling it out, as Baylor is just a 5-point favorite in the college basketball odds. 

Can Thursday’s nightcap at T-Mobile produce some fireworks? Check my free college basketball picks for Cincinnati vs. Baylor below to see where the best bet lies. 

Cincinnati vs Baylor best odds

Cincinnati vs Baylor picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Bearcats are the lone Round 1 team still in the mix. They opened the tourney with a furious come-from-behind win over West Virginia, turning a 16-point deficit into a 90-85 win. They followed things up with a 72-52 thumping of 16th-ranked Kansas, but that was almost expected considering their injuries. 

They now turn their attention to the 14th-ranked Baylor Bears, who had their three-game win streak snapped at the end of the regular season with a 10-point thumping from Texas Tech. The Bears boast one of the best offenses in the nation, scoring 81.5 points per game, good for second in the conference and inside the Top 25 overall.

KenPom has them ranked fifth in offensive efficiency, powered by a 48.9% field goal shooting average and a 39.8% mark from 3-point range, the best moneyball shooting mark in the Big 12. That was far from the case in the only meeting between these teams this year, with Baylor winning a 62-59 rockfight at home.

The Bears limited Cincy to just 39.3% shooting from the field, including a grim 4-for-21 effort from 3-point range, just a 19% success rate. That helped offset a so-so offensive effort from the Bears, who shot 45.8% from the field, and a dismal 5-for-20 effort from the land beyond.

The biggest factor here is fatigue: Cincinnati will be playing its third game in three nights — it didn’t even play a single back-to-back all season. Baylor is well rested and provides a brutally efficient offense that’s tough for any defense let alone a fatigued one. 

Cincy could come out strong but will likely fade away as this game goes on.

My best bet: Baylor -5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Cincinnati vs Baylor same-game parlay

Baylor -5

Ja'Kobe Walter Over 1.5 made threes

Over 141

+320 at DraftKings

Let’s focus part of our SGP on Baylor freshman Ja’Kobe Walter, who led the team in scoring this year at 14.7 points per game. He's also coming in hot from beyond the arc. 

He finished the year with a 15-point effort against Texas Tech, drilling 3-for-7 from distance. That makes it five straight games he’s hit at least two triples, while hitting at a deft 40.5% clip on 37 attempts over that span.  

We talked about Baylor’s offensive prowess, and it should show up Thursday. A team in the Top 20 in field goal shooting, seventh in 3-point shooting and Top 75 in assists, Baylor also boasts six players averaging at least 10 points per game, so it’s not like they’re reliant on just one dude. 

They also get to the stripe, ranked inside the Top 30 in both attempts and makes. That’s a lot of ground for Cincinnati to cover, so we're betting on the potential for the flood gates to open, pushing the score past the Over.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cincinnati vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has stayed inside the 4.5- to 5.5-point range. The Bearcats are about even when it comes to spread betting, going 17-16 ATS, though they've covered three of their last four games. 

Baylor, meanwhile, is a Top-20 cover team in the nation, compiling an impressive 17-10-3 ATS record on the year.

The total opened at 140.5 points, which is still available at some sites, but it’s only been upped to 141.5 if you’re thinking about going shopping for the number that suits you.

The Bears have an Over record of 16-14, crossing the total twice in their previous three contests. Cincinnati owns a 17-16 Over record, with four of its last five games going Over the number.  

Cincinnati vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor has covered the spread in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.90 units / 20% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Baylor.

Cincinnati vs Baylor game info

Cincinnati vs Baylor key injuries

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