The No. 15th-seeded Kansas State Wildcats face the No. 10 seed BYU Cougars in the opening round of the Big 12 Conference tournament tonight.
The Cougars dropped out of the AP Top 25 after a tough end to the regular season, and my BYU vs Kansas State predictions fade them as double-digit faves tonight.
Here are my free college basketball picks for March 10.
BYU vs Kansas State prediction
BYU vs Kansas State best bet
BYU vs Kansas State best bet: Kansas State +10.5 (-110)
Due to elevation, the BYU Cougars have a significant home-court advantage, which disappears on the road and at neutral sites. While they boast a scoring margin of +15.4 points per game in Provo, that shrinks to +2.1 away from home.
The Cougars have been inconsistent since losing star guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury. Especially on defense, where they sit outside the Top 300 in opponent eFG% (55.3%) and opponent TO rate since February 1.
The Kansas State Wildcats have played harder since firing Jerome Tang, and scorers like P.J. Haggerty and Nate Johnson can get buckets against this struggling defense.
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BYU vs Kansas State same-game parlay
For the Wildcats to be competitive, they'll need to take advantage of BYU's weak perimeter defense. Nate Johnson shoots a sizzling 39.6% from deep and has dropped more than 15.5 points in three straight games.
BYU vs Kansas State SGP
- Kansas State +10.5
- Nate Johnson Over 15.5 points
- Nate Johnson Over 2.5 threes
Our beyond the arc SGP: Stars shine
With both teams struggling on defense and playing at a blazing-fast pace, it makes sense to back the stars on both teams to shine.
Haggerty is fourth in the country in points per game (23.3), while BYU guard Robert Wright III has eclipsed 22.5 points in two of his last three contests.
Meanwhile, superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa averages 24.7 ppg and 6.7 rpg and should grab plenty of boards, with KSU 318th in rebounds allowed per game (37.3).
BYU vs Kansas State SGP
- Nate Johnson Over 15.5 points
- P.J. Haggerty Over 24.5 points
- Rob Wright III Over 22.5 points
- AJ Dybantsa Over 7.5 rebounds
BYU vs Kansas State odds
- Spread: BYU +10.5 | Kansas State -10.5
- Moneyline: BYU +400 | Kansas State -550
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 | Under 168.5
BYU vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as double-digit favorites. Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Kansas State.
How to watch BYU vs Kansas State
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, March 10, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
BYU vs Kansas State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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