Arkansas vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tide Refuses to Raise All Boats

The Arkansas Razorbacks will get a chance to further cement their NCAA tournament bid on the road against the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday afternoon. 

Arkansas is 19-9 overall and 8-7 in SEC play after consecutive victories over Florida and Georgia. The Razorbacks took a home beating in the first matchup with Alabama, losing 84-69. The Crimson Tide are 24-4 overall and 14-1 in SEC play, currently the top overall seed in ESPN’s bracketology.

Will Arkansas be able to pull off the big road upset and all but lock in their spot in the field of 68? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Alabama on Saturday, February 25 to find out.

Arkansas vs Alabama best odds

Arkansas vs Alabama picks and predictions

Defensively, Arkansas has played on a different level over the last month and change. They’ve only allowed 63.2 points per game over their last 10 contests. Meanwhile, over the last 12 games, Alabama’s offense has been all over the place. The Tide have three games where they reached the century mark and three games where they failed to reach 70 points. 

In the first matchup, Alabama lit up the scoreboard in the second half, dropping 51 points. The Crimson Tide shot 9/20 from 3-point range and 25/36 from the free throw stripe. That was completely out of character for the Arkansas defense to give up that many threes. They rank first in the country allowing only 5.4 made 3-pointers per contest. 

On the offensive end, Arkansas is not much of a 3-point shooting team itself. They only average 5.0 made threes on 15.9 attempts per game. This ranks 352nd and 351st in the country, respectively. 

As inconsistent as the Alabama offense has been, the same cannot be said for its defense. The Tide rank fifth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom rankings, second in the country holding opponents to 27.0% from downtown, and third in overall field goal percentage at 37.4%. 

In 15 SEC games, Alabama has only allowed one opponent to reach 70 points, and that was earlier this week in a surprising overtime game with South Carolina. It only allows 62.1 points per game in 13 home games this year and only Memphis in mid-December managed surpass the 69-point mark. Arkansas only managed 69 points at home in the first matchup, and averages 68.6 points per contest on the road this season.

There is no doubt that both offenses have the capability to perform in a shootout. However, both defenses are highly rated and will put the clamps down in such an important game. The total is way too high for this matchup of Top-12 KenPom defenses. 

My best bet: Under 151.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Arkansas vs Alabama spread analysis

Alabama losing at home this season is extremely unlikely, but Arkansas will put it to the ultimate test on Saturday. The Razorbacks may be 2-6 on the road this season, but they have not lost by double digits in any of their past five such games. 

Arkansas has only been underdogs of more than five points in two games this season. They were 6.5-point dogs to Baylor on the road and they lost by three. They were 5-point dogs on the road to Kentucky and won straight up by 15 points. 

The Underdog is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 meetings between these two programs. The Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.

The Arkansas defense is going to show up in this game and it would be surprising if it got held below 60 points offensively. Alabama is likely to still win the game, but this is a big spread for a team fighting to stay on the inside of the bubble trying to prove it belongs. I like the Hogs to cover and keep the game close. 

Arkansas vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

I can understand the high total in this game given that both teams average a combined 158.2 points per game. However, they only allow a combined 134.1 points per contest. In this tough SEC matchup with big implications this late in the season, I will rely on the defenses. 

The Under is 3-0-1 in the Razorbacks’ last four games against a team with a winning straight-up record and 8-3 in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last four games against a team with a winning straight-up record and 5-2 in their last seven home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Razorbacks are going to do all they can to prevent Alabama from hitting threes and will play physical defense. Bama will get their opportunities at the free throw line, but a 71.8% free throw shooting team may not make those opportunities count. Give me the Under here. 

Arkansas vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Under is 15-6 in the Razorbacks’ last 21 games following a straight-up win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Alabama.

Arkansas vs Alabama game info

Arkansas vs Alabama key injuries

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