Arizona vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Stefanovic Produces at Pauley Pavillion

The No. 5 Arizona Wildcats look to wrap up the regular season conference championship with a two-game road trip in L.A. that starts with a visit to Pauley Pavilion on Thursday night. 

Tommy Lloyd’s squad is battling for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, whereas Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins are looking to avoid the program’s fifth losing season in the last 75 years. 

It’ll be the last time these two teams meet in the regular season as members of the Pac-12. Looking at the college basketball odds, the Wildcats are expected to complete the series sweep as 8.5-point road favorites while the total resides at 147.

What stands out most about the handicap for this game? Check out our college basketball picks for Arizona vs. UCLA on Thursday, March 7 to find out.

Arizona vs UCLA best odds

Arizona vs UCLA picks and predictions

The Arizona Wildcats were projected by many to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for much of the season. That all changed after the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers had a masterclass of a week, beating Auburn at home and Alabama on the road.

A Wednesday night road win over South Carolina gave the Vols a seven-game winning streak, which has vaulted them to the last No. 1 seed according to most prognostications on Bracket Matrix. 

Tommy Lloyd’s squad still has seeding implications to play for in the last two games of the regular season and the Pac-12 Tournament. The Wildcats also are playing for the regular season championship and can wrap up the title by winning out. 

Things get a little bit tricky if the Wildcats were to fall on Thursday night. If they drop a game this week while Washington State wins out, the Cougars would win the regular season title and earn the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament. 

First up on the L.A. road trip is the UCLA Bruins. Mick Cronin’s team has had quite the roller coaster of a season, losing eight of nine games from early December to early January to move to 6-10, catching fire by winning eight of nine from mid-January to mid-February and appearing to be headed for a protected seed in the conference tournament, and most recently dropping four straight games to be at jeopardy of a losing season. 

The Bruins lost a vast amount of production from a stellar roster a year ago. Cronin opted not to hit the transfer portal hard, instead bringing in an eclectic group of European first-year players, the majority of whom simply haven’t made meaningful contributions during their initial year in the States. With only two upperclassmen on the roster, it was always going to be a massive rebuilding year — and it has been. 

You never really know which version of the Bruins is going to show up on a given night. Is it going to be the team that endured a 1-8 stretch or the one that pulled off an 8-1 run? The lone loss during the 8-1 stretch was in Tucson against this Arizona team in a game that the Bruins led by 19 points in the first half but ultimately succumbed 71-77. 

Given UCLA’s inconsistencies and Arizona’s struggles at times on the road, it might be best to seek alternative markets for Thursday night’s best bet. I’ll focus on known quantities rather than guessing about the caprices of a mercurial team. 

What we know about the Wildcats is they struggle to defend the 3-point line, ranking 293rd in 3-pointers allowed per game (8.2) and 233rd in percentage of shots allowed from behind the arc (38.6% per Hoop-Math).

We also know Arizona plays at a fast pace, ranking 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. That means a boatload of points are usually scored in Wildcats games as they drop 90.3 ppg on offense (second nationally) while surrendering 73.3 ppg on defense (226th). 

Lazar Stefanovic is UCLA’s best shooter and should be able to capitalize on this matchup. After a slow start to the year, he’s come alive with 12 double-digit scoring efforts in his last 13 games. The Utah transfer is averaging 14.4 ppg during that stretch and there’s some value in his points prop for Thursday, set at 11.5 at some locations and 12.5 at others. 

I like both listings and will be snapping up the 11.5 while it’s still available while remaining comfortable with the 12.5. He’s scored 12+ points in nine of his last 13 games and dropped 17 points in the first matchup.

Stefanovic is seeing all the playing time he can get, playing at least 38 minutes in three of his last four games, and he’ll have every opportunity to exceed this number. 

My best bet: Lazar Stefanovic Over 11.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

Arizona vs UCLA same-game parlay

Lazar Stefanovic Over 11.5 points

UCLA +8.5

UCLA team total Over 68.5

+274 at FanDuel

While it’s hard to trust this up-and-down UCLA team, it’s also difficult to have much faith in Arizona on the road. The Wildcats have played better in away games lately by winning four straight, but it’s hard to forget about their 2-3 start. 

The Bruins possess a stellar rim protector in Adem Bona, and he can make this game interesting if he avoids foul trouble. On paper, UCLA has the tools to clog up the paint and turn this one into a rock fight, which would benefit the home team. 

Per Evan Miya, the Bruins play significantly better when stepping up in competition. We’ve seen them play within 8.5 points to good teams like Marquette, Gonzaga, and this Arizona team the first time around. 

The final leg of the SGP features UCLA to exceed its team total of 68.5 points, with Arizona’s defense having held just four of its last 22 opponents below this number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been much line movement lately and the Wildcats currently range from -8.5 to -9 depending on where you look. A few shops opened at -9, dipped down to -8.5, and then quickly went right back to -9. Track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Blindly betting Arizona in every game would’ve been a profitable strategy this year. The Wildcats are 19-9-1 ATS overall and are 7-2-1 ATS across their last 10 games. 

The Bruins are a funny case in that they couldn’t cover a spread to save their lives to start the year (3-6-1 ATS across their first nine games), had a ton of value while bookmakers overcorrected (10-4 ATS from December 28 through February 15), and have collapsed with four straight ATS losses. 

There’s some variation in the total as some books are showing 146.5 while others are offering 147.5. Shop around using our odds tool to find the best price available. 

Arizona has played slightly to the Over (15-14 O/U) while UCLA has trended to the Under (12-16 O/U). Recent history has these teams at 4-6 O/U across their last 10 meetings, but that does include a 1-4 O/U stretch when UCLA is the home team. 

The Under looks like the way to go as the Bruins will try to muck things up at home. They rank 350th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) and while there will still be plenty of possessions (it’s an Arizona game, after all), Cronin’s squad will minimize those whenever possible. 

The Wildcats thrive offensively when they get in the paint, but the Bruins allow the 19th-lowest percentage of shots at the rim (31% per Hoop-Math) defensively led by Bona’s stonewalling presence.

On the flip side, UCLA’s offense doesn’t do much well at all aside from chucking up ill-advised mid-range jumpers. Arizona’s defense gives up a lot of points but still grades out as a Top-15 unit according to most metrics. 

Arizona vs UCLA betting trend to know

Lazar Stefanovic has scored 12+ points in nine of his last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. UCLA.

Arizona vs UCLA game info

Arizona vs UCLA key injuries

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