Alabama vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tennessee's Offense Held in Check

The No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide look to stay unbeaten in SEC play as they head to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers on Wednesday night.

The Vols have dropped to No. 10 in the latest AP Top 25 poll after losing twice last week and will try to bounce back with a big win at home. That's what college basketball odds expect, with the Tide opening as 3-point road underdogs. 

I break down the matchup and more in my full college basketball betting picks for Alabama vs. Tennessee below.

Alabama vs Tennessee best odds

Alabama vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The Alabama Crimson Tide play at a blazing-fast pace but despite that tempo, they're holding conference foes to just 63.3 points per game. This is a team that defends well at every level, ranking first in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (41.9%) and second in opponent 3-point percentage (26.3%). 

That's bad news for a Tennessee Volunteers side that shoots just 50.1% from inside the arc and 32.9% from long range with those numbers dropping to 44.4% and 30.9% over the last three games. Tennessee's biggest strength on offense has been its dominance on the glass (third in the country in offensive rebound rate) but Alabama has the size and rebounding ability to compete in that area.

The Volunteers have scored more than 70 points in just two of their last eight conference games while the Tide have yet to allow an SEC opponent to hit the 70-point mark.

The Vols might be able to tighten up on D after an uncharacteristic performance on the weekend but I don't see them excelling on offense against this stingy Tide side.

My best bet: Tennessee team total Under 75.5 (-116 at FanDuel)

Alabama vs Tennessee spread analysis

Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country, which seems weird to say about its basketball (as opposed to its football) program. Head coach Nate Oats has the Tide playing their best defense in years but they're also a long and athletic squad that likes to push the pace and can fill up the hoop.

Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that ranks in the Top 15 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (13th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (fifth) according to Ken Pom. 

The Tide have gone a perfect 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) in conference play and their only hiccup over the last two months came in the Big 12/SEC challenge against Oklahoma in January.

They've reeled off four wins in a row since then, most recently beating Auburn 77-69 on the road. They shot an incredible 82% from inside the arc in that contest while holding the Tigers to 32.3% shooting and it was only a difference in free throw shooting that made the score closer than the game felt. 

When the month began, the Volunteers were the No. 2 team in the country and had been destroying opponents. Since then, they've dropped three of their last four games and have gone 0-4 ATS during that span.

In their last contest, they lost 86-85 to Missouri in a game where their supposedly elite defense allowed the Tigers to shoot 53% from the floor and go 14-for-26 from deep.

What's most troubling about that recent skid is that none of the teams they fell to (the others being Vanderbilt and Florida) are ranked and they barely scraped by Auburn at home in a contest where they mustered just 46 points. 

Tennessee still has the top-rated defense in the country according to KenPom but ranks a modest 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That doesn't come close to reflecting how poorly the Vols have been shooting with their 43.2 FG% ranking just 229th in the country.

There are some key injuries to monitor for both sides. Alabama center Charles Bediako (5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 bpg) is day-to-day with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Tennessee's Josiah-Jordan James (9.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) is set to miss his third straight game and Julian Phillips (9.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg) will be a game-time decision.

Alabama vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The Tide have a deep lineup led by Brandon Miller (18.8 ppg on 46/43/82 shooting splits) and Mark Sears (14.0 ppg on 44/39/83 shooting). Thanks to those talented scorers and an adjusted tempo that ranks second in the country, they average a whopping 83.4 ppg against Division 1 foes.

That said, the Vols hold opponents to just 56.3 ppg on 35.5% shooting. Although they're coming off a contest where they were torched for 86 points, they're now back at home and Rick Barnes will surely get them back to focusing on the defensive end of the floor. 

The Vols have more long-term concerns when it comes to their offensive production. They have three players averaging double digits in points with their leading scorers Santiago Vescovi (12.2 ppg) and Zakai Zeigler (10.8 ppg) combining to shoot just 38% from the floor.

Both of these schools also sit just outside the Top 200 in turnover rate. While the Tide don't force many turnovers, the Vols are 18th in opponent turnover rate (22.6%) and typically do a terrific job of pressuring ball handlers although they didn't do much in that capacity in their last two games. 

Alabama vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 18-4 in Tennessee's last 22 games vs. winning teams while the Under is 16-5 in Alabama's previous 21 contests against winning teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Tennessee.

Alabama vs Tennessee game info

Alabama vs Tennessee key injuries

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