The No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats face off against the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC basketball action on Saturday afternoon. The Tide are atop the conference standings with an 11-2 record and could snag a No. 1 seed with a strong end to their season. But it would be a mistake to overlook the Wildcats, who are as talented as any team in the country.
Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout between these SEC powerhouses, with college basketball odds setting the Over/Under at 175.5 and the Wildcats as 2.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Kentucky on February 24.
Alabama vs Kentucky best odds
Alabama vs Kentucky picks and predictions
The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off a 75-74 loss to LSU, but that was a major letdown spot, and they continued to show improved defense.
LSU was able to knock down some contested threes at the end of the game, but Kentucky limited it to just 45% shooting inside the arc. Before that, the Wildcats shut down Auburn on the road, holding it to 59 points on 31% shooting and held Mississippi to 63 points on 38 FG%.
Prior to that game against the Rebels, Kentucky was 135th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (102.6) and 13th in adjusted tempo (73.5) per Bart Torvik. But over their last three games they rank fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency (85.4) while sitting 118th in adjusted tempo (68.9).
Truth is that this Kentucky team has the length and athleticism to defend at a high level. It's been inexperience and poor effort that have contributed to their problems on defense. With a lineup filled with freshmen, it looks like they've finally figured things out on their own end of the floor.
While the Alabama Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense in the country per KenPom, their team total might be a tad too high in this showdown.
Keep in mind that the Tide shoot significantly worse on the road, with their effective field goal percentage dropping from 59.3% at home to 54.5% in away contests. They torched LSU for 109 points in their last away game, but they hadn't scored more than 85 points in their previous six road contests this season, averaging 79.8 ppg during that span.
My best bet: Alabama team total Under 86.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Alabama vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Alabama team total Under 86.5
Kentucky team total Under 88.5
Mark Sears Over 21.5 points
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My favorite bet of the game is the Under on Alabama's team total, but I don't expect the Wildcats to surpass their lofty team total either. The Wildcats are inefficient at attacking the rim (347th in the country per ShotQualityBets) and in transition (346th), while Alabama does a good job of defending in both those areas.
The Tide also do a good job of defending the arc, limiting foes to 31.1% shooting from deep, and 3-point shooting is the biggest strength of this high-powered Wildcats attack. With the Wildcats slowing down their pace over the last few games, they won't find it easy to score more than 88 points here.
While I'm betting on both teams to go Under their team total, that doesn't necessarily mean that these players will struggle to score. After all, even an 85-80 game would still be a shootout and would lead to plenty of points for players on both sides.
Alabama's Mark Sears has been their best player this year and leads the team with 20.4 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits. He's coming off a poor performance against the Gators, where he went 5-15 from the field and just 1-6 from the arc and still finished with a respectable 17 points. Prior to that game, he had dropped 22+ points in eight of his previous 11 contests.
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Alabama vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread hit the board with Kentucky at -1.5 and the total at 176. Early money poured in on the Under knocking the total down to 173.5 but buyback on the other side has seen it climb back to 175.5. Meanwhile, the spread has shifted to -2.5 for the Wildcats.
Alabama is red-hot, having gone 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games. In their last game, the Tide were 10-point home favorites against Florida but were pushed into overtime where they managed to pull away in a 98-93 victory.
The Wildcats are fresh off a loss to LSU, where they lost on a buzzer-beater as 6-point road faves. To be fair, that was a classic letdown and look-ahead spot since they were coming off a massive road win against No. 14 Auburn and had this marquee matchup on the horizon.
Both sides have been among the best Over teams in the country this season. The Tide are 19-7 to the Over while the Wildcats are 18-8 O/U.
Alabama vs Kentucky betting trend to know
After starting the season off going 14-3 to the Over, the Under is 5-4 in the Wildcats last nine games including each of their last three contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Kentucky.
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Alabama vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, February 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs Kentucky key injuries
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