The No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide head to Gainesville tonight to face the Florida Gators. The Gators might not be in the AP Top 25 but they are just outside the rankings, and their overall record of 20-9 is identical to Alabama's. Florida also pushed the Tide into overtime when these teams clashed in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago.
Oddsmakers are expecting another close contest between these SEC foes with college basketball odds installing the Gators as 1.5-point home favorites. Here are my free college basketball picks for Alabama vs. Florida on March 5.
Alabama vs Florida best odds
Alabama vs Florida picks and predictions
Both of these teams fill up the hoop and love to push the pace. The Alabama Crimson Tide are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking 13th in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, the Florida Gators are 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33rd in adjusted tempo. They also both have issues on the other end of the floor with the Tide 100th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and Florida 87th.
With highly-efficient and up-tempo attacks facing struggling defenses, it's no surprise we're seeing a massive total of 175.5 for tonight's showdown. Even at that towering number, I still like the Over. Keep in mind the total actually opened at 177 before being bet down, and that KenPom has a projected total of 179 with Bart Torvik at 181.
These schools combined for a whopping 191 points in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago in a 98-93 Alabama victory. What was surprising about that offensive outburst was that neither side shot well from the perimeter, combining to go just 17-for-62 from the arc (27.4%). If they can combine for 170 points in regulation with both teams uncharacteristically shooting poorly, we should see even more scoring when positive regression sets in.
In addition, the Gators typically shoot much better at home where they have an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% compared to 48.7 EFG% on the road. The Tide have been shooting lights out on the road — boasting a 55.4 EFG% — but they've been even worse than usual on the other end of the floor.
While Alabama limits opponents to an EFG% of 45.5% at home, that number skyrockets to 54.3% in away contests. Get your popcorn ready for another SEC shootout tonight and bet the Over.
My best bet: Over 175.5 (-110 at bet365)
Alabama vs Florida same-game parlay
Over 175.5
Will Clayton Jr. Over 18.5 points
Mark Sears Over 3.5 assists
Will Clayton Jr. leads Florida with 16.9 points per game on 44/37/84 shooting splits. He has gone Over this number in six of his last seven games, including that previous showdown against the Tide. He finished with a whopping 27 points in that contest despite shooting just 37.5% from the field and 25% from deep, and with positive regression at home, he should be in for an even more efficient game.
The O/U on Mark Sears' assists total looks a bit mispriced tonight. Sears isn't just Alabama's leading scorer, he also does a great job of facilitating and averages 4.2 dimes per game. He's registered at least four assists in 10 of his last 11 games and dished out eight when these teams clashed on February 21. In what is expected to be another high-scoring game, Sears should once again hit the Over on his assists total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Tide at -1 and the Over/Under at 177. Early money came in on the home side, flipping the spread to favor the Gators at -1.5. Money also came in on the Under, dropping the total to as low as 174.5 before buyback on the Over pushed it back to 175.5.
Both of these sides are coming off tough losses to ranked opponents. The Gators had a 10-point lead in the second half against No. 18 South Carolina on the road but ended up losing 82-76. Meanwhile, the Tide were neck-and-neck with No. 4 Tennessee at home before the Vols separated in the final two minutes.
The Gators have been terrific at home this season, going 13-1 SU, but they are a modest 6-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Tide are 5-4 SU and ATS on the road.
Alabama vs Florida betting trend to know
The Over is 22-13 in the Tide's last 35 games overall while going 7-2 in their nine games on the road this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Florida.
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Alabama vs Florida game info
| Location: | Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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