The Minnesota Timberwolves may owe the basketball gods a thank you. The Timberwolves absolutely no-showed in Game 1 against the Golden State Warriors, getting routed at home, but with Steph Curry now out for at least the next three games due to a hamstring strain, Minnesota is still a heavy favorite to win this series.
My Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks double down on the only Timberwolf to play well in Game 1.
Who will win Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 2?
It would be easy to say the Minnesota Timberwolves should have no problems with Steph Curry sidelined for a week. It would be easy to say Minnesota cannot possibly shoot 5-of-29 (17%) from deep again. It would be easy to say Draymond Green will not go 4-of-10 from deep again.
But that would ignore how often the Timberwolves lost to shorthanded and overmatched opponents this season. That would ignore that the Timberwolves shot 7-of-47 (14.9%) in their clinching game against the Lakers, now abysmal from deep in two games in a row. And that would ignore that Green went 2-of-5 in a Game 4 win last round, also hitting better than 50% of his 3s in three of his final seven regular-season games.
Do not assume Minnesota will win easily now that Curry is sidelined for a week. But do assume Minnesota will win.
Even the Timberwolves should take the Golden State Warriors seriously without Curry. Game 1 should serve as a wake-up call.
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Naz Reid Over 11.5 points (-125 at bet365)
As bad as the Timberwolves shot on Tuesday night, it would have been comically worse without Naz Reid. While he went 3-of-7 (42.9%), the rest of the roster went 2-of-22 (9.1%) from beyond the arc.
Reid had more at stake this postseason than perhaps any other individual player. He is expected to turn down his player option for next season and seek out a new contract for perhaps as much as double his current $14 million this season. But in an offseason without a ton of cap space across the league, Reid needed to show he could be a key playoff contributor to justify that kind of payday.
He is now shooting 48.3% from deep this postseason while averaging 12.8 points and four rebounds, all in fewer than 26 minutes per game. Suffice it to say, he has justified that coming contract.
Reid will get that contract because of the mismatches he creates anytime he is on the court. Who do you put on a 6-foot-10 player that shoots nearly 50% from deep but has such quality handles that he regularly drives to the rim? Oh, and his wingspan is longer than 7-foot-3, for good measure.
Golden State has no one to defend Reid. When Kevon Looney or Quinten Post was at center on Tuesday, Reid would seek them out to drive by them.
One thing the Wolves did capitalize on last night was Naz Reid punishing the Looney or Post at the 5 lineups. It’s pretty clear they need to guard him with a wing. pic.twitter.com/fhiF0kuG3l
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) May 7, 2025
When anyone else was guarding Reid, he could spot up for an uncontested 3-pointer. At 6-foot-6, Draymond Green cannot bother Reid’s 3s. At 6-foot-7, neither can Jonathan Kuminga.
This is how Reid went 3-of-7 from deep and 5-of-7 inside the arc for 19 points in Game 1, even when Minnesota had no other offensive pieces clicking. This is how he has cleared this prop in three of six postseason games, one of the exceptions coming by the hook and another coming because of uncharacteristic foul trouble. Look for Reid to make it four out of seven postseason games in Game 2.
Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Naz Reid Over 11.5 points
Naz Reid Over 1.5 threes
Jimmy Butler Under 24.5 points
Including Reid’s 3-pointers prop is rather obvious. His shooting is what makes him an elite offensive piece, and he has cleared this prop in four of six postseason games, along with 49 out of 82 games in the regular season, not to mention 12 of the 19 games from March 1 to the end of the season, the stretch when Minnesota’s offense ranked No. 2 in the NBA.
Doubting Jimmy Butler to score might surprise some people since Curry is out. Butler should take on more of the workload, right? Wrong.
Butler continues to shy away from success in front of Minnesota crowds. He cannot skip these games like he did four out of six games in front of a Target Center audience since running away from a playoff team in 2018, but he can repeatedly turn down shots inside because Rudy Gobert looms. He did that over and over again in Game 1, and nothing about Curry’s absence will change that cowardice.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +10 | Minnesota -10
- Moneyline: Golden State +400 | Minnesota -550
- Over/Under: Over 201 | Under 201
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Game 1 closed with Minnesota favored by six points. While Golden State exceeded expectations and that would normally shorten the next game’s spread, Curry is worth at least these four points to the spread.
- Frankly, Curry is worth more than four points. Keeping this spread at -10.5 is a testament to playoff tensions.
- The total falling by nine points compared to Game 1 is partly a reflection of Curry’s absence and partly a reflection of Minnesota’s defense in Game 1.
- The Timberwolves gave up 43% shooting from deep, and yet they still held the Warriors to just 99 points.
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota has gone 9-5 ATS at home since Julius Randle returned to the lineup in the first days of March. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Thursday, 5-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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