Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Luka Uses the Force To Keep Dallas Alive

The Golden State Warriors think they're playing with "house money", but they have trouble sealing the deal with a big series lead. Our NBA betting picks count on a better-shooting Mavericks team to rally behind Luka Doncic in Game 4.

Last Updated: May 24, 2022 6:27 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA playoffs
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

With the Golden State Warriors now just one win away from the NBA Finals, will the Dallas Mavericks show some fight down 3-0, or will the Western Conference Finals end in a sweep on Tuesday, May 24th?

We make our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 4 — and find there’s reason to believe the Mavericks’ season isn’t over just yet.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line for Mavericks vs. Warriors has been steady at -1 Dallas. The total opened, and has remained, at 215.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 predictions

Predictions made on 5/24/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Warriors vs Mavericks series odds

Warriors: -10,000
Mavericks: +1,800

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Gary Payton II (Out), Otto Porter Jr. (Doubtful), Andre Igoudala (Out).
Mavericks: Tim Hardway Jr. (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

While this series is technically still alive after the Warriors' dominant victory in Game 3, make no mistake, it is over. In 146 prior 3-0 series, no NBA team has mounted a successful comeback to eventually win in a Game 7, and this will not be the series where that changes. However, that doesn’t mean the series is going to end on Tuesday night. Indeed, the Warriors have a penchant for playing with their food before securing final victory, and a few other factors are likely to see Dallas get their first win of the series.

Remember that the Warriors' greatest defeat during this playoff run came at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies, but only after Ja Morant had been lost for the series. Without Ja, the Grizzlies’ chances in the series were essentially nil, and the Warriors relaxed so much that they ended up blown out by 39 points instead of closing out the series in Game 5. Of course, Memphis also had to play exceptionally well on its home court to forestall a Warriors victory, but Dallas can do just that. All it will take is some better shooting luck.

Looking at their Game 3 loss, it was another instance where the Mavericks significantly underperformed their typical shooting. Per ShotQuality, the Mavericks would typically expect to win Game 3 83% of the time based on both teams' shot diets. It’s easy to see where they fell short.

The Mavericks shot 28.9% from 3, with Davis Bertans going 0-2. Maxi Kleber 0-5, and Reggie Bullock 0-7 from deep (and 0-10 overall). Eight of Bullock's shots were uncontested, and all five Kleber’s were as well. This was not some masterstroke by the Warriors' defense (which peaked in Game 1) but rather just a classic and incredibly ill-timed off night for the Mavericks' role players.

I’m banking on some shooting regression and for the Mavericks to play with some desperation tonight. I like Dallas to cover.

Prediction: Mavericks -1 (-110 bet365)

Over/Under analysis

While the Dallas offense should significantly improve in Game 4, what seems a lot less likely is their defense keeping pace. The Warriors have absolutely carved the Mavericks up on the interior throughout this series, exposing their lack of rim protection time after time.

After scoring an absurd 62 points in the paint in Game 2, the Warriors had another 46 points inside in Game 3, with Steph Curry in particular seemingly getting to the rim at will. Dwight Powell has struggled to see the floor in this series, and Maxi Kleber has not been nearly as effective as a rim protector as he was against the Phoenix Suns.

Also, because we’re generally predicting a let-down game from the Warriors, that impacts the Total in two ways. The first thing that slips when the Warriors don’t bring their A-game is that they throw the ball all over the gym. A big part of their success in Game 3 was due to limiting themselves to 10 turnovers when they are averaging 15.6 per game in these playoffs.

But in that aforementioned close-out attempt against the Grizzlies, they totaled a staggering 22 turnovers. Warriors turnovers are frequently of the bad pass variety, which lead to quick transition points for the opposing team. 

When the Warriors lose ball discipline, it infects their defensive intensity too. For all the focus on the Warriors' offense, it has so often been their defense (this series headlined by Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins) that has won them close games. But the way they play defense requires discipline and focus from all five spots, particularly as Draymond has been only inconsistently great these playoffs.

The Mavericks' offense should bounce back, and the Warriors will likely give them their share of openings. All of that points to the Over.

Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110 bet365)

Best bet

Outside of Game 3, which was the prototypical shooting variance loss, Dallas has been steady at home during the playoffs, going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Also, in his short career so far, Luka Doncic has been a monster in playoff elimination games, averaging an all-time NBA high of 38.0 ppg in the four such games he’s played to date. 

It doesn’t help Golden State’s cause that in the immediate aftermath of their Game 3 victory, Steph Curry remarked that they could now play with “house money” in Game 4. Outside of this series, the Warriors have generally not covered well this year (41-37-4 ATS in the regular season), and their tendency to screw around rather than close the deal is part of the calculation here. The Warriors know the series is functionally over, and if they play like it, Dallas should be in a strong position to win. 

Pick: Mavericks -1 (-110 bet365)

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