Timberwolves vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Curry-Less Dubs Fall Flat

The NBA In-Season Tournament continues tonight with a pivotal meeting between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Golden State Warriors, though it lost some of its luster with the Tuesday afternoon news that Steph Curry will be sidelined by knee soreness after a hit in the second half on Sunday.

Nonetheless, tonight’s winner will take a strong lead in Group C out West. Curry’s injury entirely aside, Minnesota might care about this in-season tournament a touch more than Golden State, simply given one franchise has never lifted a trophy.

The Timberwolves should come a step closer to that modest goal, but let’s find the best value in that in our free NBA picks as we preview the Timberwolves vs the Warriors on November 14, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Timberwolves vs Warriors odds

Timberwolves vs Warriors predictions

Stephen Curry’s absence tonight is worth at least five points to the NBA odds, with the line jumping from the Golden State Warriors favored by 2.5 to being 2.5-point underdogs when the news of his absence was announced.

Curry first hit the injury report on Monday, listed as questionable, so it's conceivable the spread was already depressed a bit to couch against him possibly missing his first game of the season.

Yet the Warriors team total fell by only three points, to 107.5 from 110.5. Not to disparage Curry’s defense, perfectly adequate if not outright good these days, but if anything, most of his five points of value should be felt offensively tonight.

Chris Paul and Gary Payton II will pick up most of Curry’s minutes, perhaps Andrew Wiggins also getting more run than his average of 26.0 this season. They are all distinct defensive upgrades over Curry.

But offensively, Golden State is now going to be in for a long, long night.

Against these same Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, Warriors not named Steph shot 22 of 65 from the field (33.8%) and 5 of 28 from beyond the arc (17.9%).

That showing was abnormally bad, though Minnesota deserves some of that credit, the best defense in the NBA. That showing was not all that much worse than Golden State’s usual production from the rest of its roster.

Remove Steph’s numbers and the Warriors are shooting 43.7% from the field and 30.2% from deep. No one on the team has scored more than 20 points aside from Curry this season, something he has done in every game.

The Timberwolves have held five of nine opponents to 101 points or fewer this season, and without Curry, how much different is Golden State from New Orleans, Utah, Miami, Toronto, or Denver? Yes, Minnesota held the Nuggets to 89 points on Nov. 1.

And now the top defense in the league gets to face an offense without its only functioning piece.

My best bet: Warriors team total Under 107.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs Warriors same-game parlay

Warriors team total Under 107.5 points

Timberwolves -4

Draymond Green Under 9.5 points

+320 at DraftKings

With all due respect to the championship pedigree of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Wiggins, with an acknowledgment of Paul’s never-dying competitiveness, and with some slight worry of the sudden chance for the Golden State bench to prove itself, tonight could get out of hand quickly.

Dario Saric, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody are capable of only so much, and unless one of them finds a transcendent breakthrough, it's hard to find where the Warriors will find enough verve to keep up with the Timberwolves tonight.

Thompson no longer looks like someone who can pour in 40 on any given night, his knee injuries robbing NBA fans of that joy. He is shooting just 34.7% from deep this season, including 3 for 10 on Sunday and 11 for 40 in his last five games.

As long as Golden State lacks some offensive punch to keep up, an alternate spread on Minnesota makes sense. As for fading Green, well, it is two-fold.

First of all, he angered Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves on Sunday. They very well may key on him tonight, and his offensive game has never fared well when focused on. His greatest impact has been in all other parts of the game.

And with Curry out, the court will lack that much more spacing, further limiting Green around Minnesota’s trio of bigs in Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

Early look-ahead lines, the first ones posted Monday, did indeed favor Golden State by as much as -4, numbers that fell when Curry became questionable Monday night. Then again, that opening market was not widely available and the limits were such.

Minnesota is 6-3 against the spread this season, including 5-1 in its last six with the sole exception coming by the hook.

The total did not move much upon the initial Curry worries, hitting the market at 221.5 early Monday and not dropping to 221 until Tuesday morning. With Tuesday afternoon’s news, though, it plummeted to as low as 216.

It's difficult to genuinely gauge how Golden State fares compared to a total without Curry, despite its entire reliance on him, since he hasn't missed a game this season, but for what it’s worth, even the best defense in the league trends toward the Over. The Timberwolves have hit the Over in five of their nine games.

Timberwolves vs Warriors betting trend to know

Minnesota’s last four games all went Over their totals, despite no Timberwolves opponent scoring more than 110 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.

Timberwolves vs Warriors game info

Timberwolves vs Warriors latest injuries

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