Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Grizz Fend Off Pack Again

Tonight’s nationally televised ESPN game is a playoff rematch between the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves and the Memphis Grizzlies, who played a thrilling six-game first-round series last April. 

While the Grizz ultimately came away the victor, the Timberwolves seemed to have arrived as a young team, prompting their new ownership group to make a splashy trade for perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert. 

So far, the results have been mixed at best, and they’re in for a stiff test against the likes of Ja Morant and Desmond Bane Friday, November 11.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies feature a player prop by Kiwi big man Steven Adams.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies best odds

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves have an identity problem. Their star of the present, Karl-Anthony Towns, is a wonderful offensive player but has proven he can’t hold up as a defensive five. The addition of Rudy Gobert then, in theory, solves the latter problem — but creates a new one. 

Their star of the future, Anthony Edwards, wants to play fast and small, something that is made harder by a lane crowed by two traditional centers. The fit among their talented trio is awkward and compounded by a frigid start by their floor general and set-up man, D’Angelo Russell.

Even skeptics of the Gobert trade assumed the Wolves would be a great defense, but they’re ranked just 12th, in part because they’ve been abysmal at corralling the ball. Despite playing most of their minutes with the jumbo lineup featuring Gobert and Towns, the Wolves are a poor rebounding team on both ends. They’re a Bottom-10 defensive rebounding team and only marginally better on the offensive glass. 

For a team with their size, that’s downright embarrassing and an indictment on every person involved with this experiment from the players, the coaching staff, to the front office.

The Memphis Grizzlies, by contrast, know exactly who they are. They run, play fast and free around  Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, while Steven Adams helps them win the possession game. 

The 7-foot New Zealander knows his role and plays it extremely well. He’s primarily responsible for two things: setting bone-crushing screens to free up Morant, and grabbing every rebound in sight. Memphis is once again leading the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage this season and Adams leads the NBA in offensive rebounding rate (minimum 200 minutes played).

Adams is a rebounding savant that averages 11.7 per game, and he’s going against a team that has been poor at basics like boxing out all season. It helps that the Wolves are also going to be without their best backup big in Naz Reid.

My best bet: Steven Adams Over 10.5 rebounds (-111 at Caesars)

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies spread analysis

To nobody’s great surprise, the home team Grizzlies are favored, but have seen their NBA odds edge drop from -5.5 to -4.5 at most books. Both teams’ rosters tonight will be substantially different from their playoff series, which makes their recent history of little analytic use when judging this line. 

Not that any great analysis is needed, mind you. The Wolves are a team teetering on full-blown panic and are coming off two sobering losses to the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks. They weren’t ever competitive in either game.

The Grizzlies are 8-4 and have the eighth overall net rating despite missing Jaren Jackson Jr. entirely thus far. Jackson’s absence has seen their defense slip substantially, all the way to 24th, but their offense, and the growth of Desmond Bane, have been more than enough to carry them to a solid start.

The Wolves have been brutal to watch and equally brutal against the spread. They’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six and are 0-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. The high-flying Edwards only recently notched his first dunk of year, as he adjusts to a lack of driving space. His dissatisfaction with the current state of the team is plain on his face.

It would take a lot more room than this to list all the Wolves’ problems to date, and I’d need a much bigger line than this to consider taking them against Memphis.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The Total has been set at 234.5, and I too believe this will be a high-scoring affair. As mentioned, Jackson's absence has torpedoed the Grizz’s normally stout defense, and the Wolves fall apart on that end any time Gobert hits the bench. Even if Memphis manages to shrink the court against the Wolves’ funky two-big groups, the Towns no Gobert units should stretch the Grizzlies to the breaking point.

The Grizz also tend to pour it on against weaker competition, in part leading to the Over going 4-1 in their last five against teams with a losing record. Given the recent history between these two teams, I’m guessing they’ll do their best to embarrass the Wolves on Friday night and they have the ammo to do it. 

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies game info

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies key injuries

Pages related to this topic