The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from the NBA Finals, while the San Antonio Spurs try to keep their season alive in a pivotal Game 6 tonight.
With stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama taking center stage, there’s no shortage of intriguing betting angles to attack.
Before locking in your Thunder vs. Spurs predictions, let’s break down the top NBA player prop projections and the NBA picks our model sees the most value on.
Thunder vs Spurs computer picks for Game 6
 Thunder |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Gilgeous-Alexander u7.5 assists +115 |
Wembanyama o12.5 rebounds -112 |
| Williams o12.5 points -128 |
Harper o9.5 points -110 |
| Holmgren o13.5 points -115 |
Fox o14.5 points -112 |
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Thunder Game 6 computer picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists (+115)
Projection: 6.58 assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still going to have the ball a ton, but this feels more like a scoring game than a playmaking one. The Spurs have done a decent job forcing OKC into isolation offense, and if SGA starts hunting his own shot late, the assists can dry up quickly.
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Jalen Williams Over 12.5 points (-128)
Projection: 15.64 points
Jalen Williams hasn’t played in the last three games, but if he’s back in the lineup, this number still feels short. He’s cleared 12.5 points in five of his last six appearances, and Oklahoma City badly missed his downhill scoring ability. With defenses loading up on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams should find plenty of clean looks if active.
Chet Holmgren Over 13.5 points (-115)
Projection: 14.95 points
Chet Holmgren’s skill set is a nightmare matchup in this series. He can space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish around the rim, which makes him tough to scheme against. If he gets his usual minutes, there are enough scoring paths here to clear this number.
Spurs Game 6 computer picks
Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds (-112)
Projection: 15.49 rebounds
Victor Wembanyama has been vacuuming rebounds lately, and the pace of this matchup only helps. There should be plenty of missed shots on both sides, and his length gives Oklahoma City problems every time the ball goes up. If the Spurs keep this competitive, the rebounds should pile up.
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Dylan Harper Over 9.5 points (-110)
Projection: 10.85 points
Dylan Harper looks more comfortable every game, and San Antonio clearly trusts him offensively right now. He’s getting downhill, attacking the rim, and finding ways to score without needing a ton of touches. Ten points isn’t asking for much if his role stays intact.
De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 points (-112)
Projection: 16.44 points
De'Aaron Fox still feels like San Antonio’s biggest pressure point offensively. His speed creates problems even in slower playoff games, and he’s aggressive enough to get to the line when the jumper isn’t falling. In a must-win game, expect the Spurs to lean heavily on him offensively.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs Game 6
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Thursday, May 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock/NBC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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