Suns vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Luka Gets Revenge in Dallas

Devin Booker dropped 46 points in a 23-point blowout win the last time these rivals played and with the season series continuing tonight in Dallas, our NBA picks expect Luka to respond in a big way — find out how below.

Feb 22, 2024 • 13:26 ET • 4 min read
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
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Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will take on Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns at the American Airlines Center on Thursday, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.

We've all seen the meme: Luka Doncic staring at Devin Booker, as Doncic and the Mavs eliminated the Suns from the playoffs in the Western Conference semifinals in Game 7 in Phoenix. Since then, the rivalry has been very personal between the two and we've seen some big-time performances from each player in this head-to-head matchup, even this season.

Doncic scored 50 points against the Suns on Christmas Day in a Mavericks' 14-point win, and Booker dropped 46 points as the Suns returned the favor with a 23-point victory a couple of weeks later.

So, who are we backing with our player prop bet for Thursday, Booker or Doncic? Find out in my free NBA picks for Suns vs. Mavericks on Thursday, February 22.

Suns vs Mavericks odds

Suns vs Mavericks predictions

If there's one thing I've learned in my NBA player prop betting over the years, it's that when Luka Doncic has a matchup that's personal to him, I don't think you can fully capture what he is capable of in this state of mind in a set of projections.

The good news is, not only do we have a personal rivalry with Devin Booker that grabs your attention based on what Luka's shown us in the past, but we also have the projections on our side, as we're seeing an edge on the Over 31.5 points trading at -105 at DraftKings.

We know the history, but what should we expect this time around? Well, the Phoenix Suns could be without Bradley Beal, who tweaked his hamstring right before the All-Star break and was also undergoing surgery on his broken nose over the break. The Dallas Mavericks, on the other hand, are riding a 6-game winning streak, and vibes are high following the addition of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford at the NBA trade deadline.

The Suns aren't known for their defense; the game plan is to outscore you, and that's perfect for the prop we're backing. I also like that we saw Dereck Lively return from his broken nose before the All-Star break. Phoenix has a hard time guarding Doncic in the past, and now you mix in an offensive threat in Washington and two lob threats in Gafford and Lively, and it makes it much harder to send help defense Luka's way.

Not to mention Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of the previous matchups against the Suns. So not only did Doncic exceed the total of 31.5 points both times by scoring 50 and 34 points, but he was the clear focal point of the Suns' defense and they still couldn't slow him down.

With the new additions on the Mavericks and Irving in the lineup, Doncic should have significantly more space to operate than he's had in previous matchups this season, and let's face it, this guy is a pure assassin when the moment calls for it. Do you think he'll be happy Booker scored 46 in their previous matchup and blew out the Mavs at home?

Doncic is projected to score 34.1 points on Thursday against the Suns, which allows us to price the Over 31.5 points at -145, but it's available at -105 at DraftKings. There are some 30.5s out there in the market with heavy juice on the Over. Based on our projection, we have a higher expected value by going after the Over 31.5 (-105) at DraftKings compared to a 30.5 (-133) at BetMGM.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Suns vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 made threes

Grayson Allen Over 2.5 made threes

I think pairing the Over 3.5 made threes with the Over 31.5 points for Doncic is pretty self-explanatory. In the two games Doncic has played against Phoenix this season, he's attempted 27 shots from beyond the arc. You just know Doncic is going to walk up and pull a couple of 'eff you' 3-pointers because he's playing Booker & Co.

Grayson Allen's made threes don't correlate to the Over we played on Doncic's points prop, but this is a prop we straight bet and won on in the previous Suns-Mavericks game on January 24.

Dallas' defense is weak at the point of attack and will have to help a ton on Booker and Durant. You can't stop everything in the NBA, and the Mavericks have consistently shown they're going to live with giving up 3-pointers to Allen and others.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Suns vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks opened as a 2-point favorite over the Suns on Thursday and are now trading as a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel. The Mavericks did touch as high as a 3-point favorite at FanDuel but were bet back down to 2.5. This is a consensus number in the market and it's had plenty of time to settle considering these lines have been posted for days thanks to the NBA All-Star break.

The total opened at DraftKings at 243.5 and is now trading at 243. We're seeing some different opinions in the market when it comes to the total as you can see anywhere from 243 to 244.5 available. That's quite the difference for a total, so make sure to shop around before hitting the button.

While the spread is currently trading at Mavericks -2.5 and the total at 243, we're still waiting on injury news regarding Bradley Beal. Once Beal is ruled in or out for the Suns, you'll see some movement on both of these lines.

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Suns vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Mavericks have hit the first-half Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.85 units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Mavericks.

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Suns vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Thursday, February 22, 2024
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

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