The Los Angeles Clippers continue to prove their resilience without Kawhi Leonard. After losing Game 2 in the most heartbreaking fashion to the Phoenix Suns, the Clips stormed back at home to take Game 3 and keep themselves in the Western Conference Finals.
But they still have a deficit to dig out of, and a very tough opponent to do so against.
With Kawhi's status for Game 4 murky at best, we're breaking down Saturday's matchup with our Suns vs. Clippers picks for June 26.
(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Friday night's news that Clippers SF Kawhi Leonard will remain inactive for Game 4.)
Suns vs Clippers game info
• Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, June 26, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Suns vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis line jumped the fence at BetMGM Nevada, where Phoenix opened -1 and it's Los Angeles -1 at 8:45 p.m. ET, shortly before tipoff. "Tickets are 2/1 in favor of the Suns. Money, though, is running about 3/1 in favor of the Clippers," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said, noting one sizable Clippers play is skewing those splits. "If not for that one bet, it'd be a lot closer, and we might even need the Clippers." The total dipped from 220 to 217.5, though money is backing the Over. "Tickets are almost dead even, 10 more on the Over, and a lot of tickets on both sides. Money is almost 2/1 in favor of the Over, even though the total came down," Shelton said. "We need 'dog and Under."
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns vs Clippers series odds
Suns: -450
Clippers: +350
Suns vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Cameron Payne PG (Questionable)
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard SF (Out), Serge Ibaka C (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Suns are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
With one ailing superstar (Chris Paul) back in action, Kawhi's status for the rest of this series now takes center stage. The Clippers have proven they can beat the Suns without him, but doing so three more times in four games will prove far more difficult.
Signs certainly don't point to Leonard being active for Game 4. The Clippers beat has been funeral-quiet Friday after Leonard watched Game 3 from a luxury suite instead of the bench. Keeping in mind that this is Kawhi – who evolved the entire concept of load management and once sat out a whole season on principle – it feels safe to assume he's a no-go for Game 4.
So, where does that leave us?
The Suns lost Game 3 for several glaring, and possibly anomalous, reasons.
First, obviously, they only scored 92 points, a playoff low, with Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining to shoot 10-40 from the field. Credit Pat Beverley and the Clippers defense where they're due, but Phoenix's backcourt is simply too talented to be that bad again. Furthermore, Paul was playing his first game in almost two weeks while Booker had to get used to a Phantom of the Opera mask – bank on them being better.
The Suns also lost Cam Payne to injury, robbing them of a player who's improbably become a key cog in their rotation. Payne was "walking around fine" Friday according to Suns coach Monty Williams, and having him back in the lineup would be a great boon for Phoenix in non-CP3 minutes.
The Clippers continue to get great production from their supporting cast, and it's not improbable that Reggie Jackson or Terance Mann continues to pick up the scoring slack. Ty Lue may also have a net-positive adjustment or two up his sleeve, which he's proven capable of.
But the Clippers appear to be testing the limits of their sans-Kawhi ceiling, while the Suns' Game 3 was pretty close to a disaster scenario. They bounce back from disappointments consistently (12-4 ATS following last 16 straight-up losses) and will be motivated to bury the Clippers instead of letting them pull even.
Get ahead of any upcoming Kawhi news and lock your Suns bet in now as a virtual pick 'em.
PREDICTION: Suns -1 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Clippers know they can't win a shootout with the Suns, and have slowed this series to a molasses-trapped pace.
Given that the Clippers and Suns were both bottom-10 teams in pace during the regular season and stayed in the bottom-six come playoff time, don't expect a random track meet in Game 4.
L.A.'s focus on defense should continue. While Game 3 was a best-case scenario for them, they're an energetic unit when engaged — they can give you several looks and have multiple elite defenders, with few weak links. Meanwhile, Phoenix is merely the NBA's second-best D-rated team in the playoffs.
A total of 218.5 leaves lots of need for improvement when the last two games in this series have averaged just 202.5. The Suns will almost certainly bring a better scoring effort, but with two strong defensive teams playing at a snail's pace, the margins are pretty slim.
PREDICTION: Under 218.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
With Leonard shelved again, the onus will be on Paul George to do the heavy lifting for L.A., and dammit if he hasn't done his all to put "Pandemic P" in the past.
George has averaged 29/8.3/6.3 so far in the WCF, good for 43.6 combined, a decimal point above his 43.5 total in the points+rebounds+assists market for Game 4. He also posted an average of 51 in two Kawhi-less games vs. the Jazz.
Obviously, neither is a huge sample, but the playoffs don't present us with much longitude. George is exactly the type of versatile player who can exploit this market and deliver in a number of ways in what's definitely another must-win game.
PG's coming off a game in which he dropped 50 pts+rebs+asts while shooting just 35 percent from the field. Count on him to continue to throw dirt on his playoff shortcomings.
(Also, if this helps sway you, I'm 11-2 in this market for Covers picks this year.)
PREDICTION: Paul George Over 43.5 pts+rebs+asts (-125)
Suns vs Clippers betting card
- Suns -1 (-110)
- Under 218.5 (-110)
- Paul George Over 43.5 pts+rebs+asts (-125)
Picks made on 6/25/2021 at 5:15 p.m. ET
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