The Minnesota Timberwolves are howling with homecourt advantage after splitting the first two games of their Round 2 series with the San Antonio Spurs.
Game 3 tips off in the Target Center tonight, and I'll sink my teeth into the player prop odds, feasting on any value in the game-to-game adjustments.
Here are my best Spurs vs. Timberwolves props and NBA picks for Friday, May 8.
Best Spurs vs Timberwolves props for Game 3
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Mike Conley Jr. |
Over 3.5 assists | +120 |
| Rudy Gobert |
Over 1.5 blocks | +105 |
 Victor Wembanyama |
Over 12.5 rebounds | -110 |
Game 3 Prop #1: Mike Conley Jr. Over 3.5 assists
The Minnesota Timberwolves can’t afford to keep coughing up the ball and setting up the San Antonio Spurs with extra possessions. The Spurs flipped 22 T-Wolves’ turnovers into 19 points during their Game 2 squash.
Veteran point guard Mike Conley Jr. was responsible for only one of those turnovers in his 16 minutes of action, in which he also recorded three assists.
I expect Conley's floor time to pick up tonight, given his steady hand and multiple injuries to Ayo Dosunmu (questionable for Game 3) and the lack of depth in the backcourt.
Minnesota’s style will be slower, trying to keep this game in a half-court set, rather than running with San Antonio. That suits the aging legs of Conley just fine, allowing him to create shots for his teammates.
Conley dished out six dimes over 24 minutes in Game 1 of this series and also had six helpers in the Game 6 win over Denver in Round 1.
I believe Conley will serve a big playmaking role, and I love the plus-money return on Over 3.5 dimes.
Game 3 Prop #2: Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 blocks
Minnesota center Rudy Gobert failed to register a block in Game 2, which speaks more to the style of the Spurs’ offense than anything. San Antonio scored in transition and on fast breaks, not allowing the T-Wolves’ shot swatter to set up in the paint.
If Minnesota is to avoid another blowout, it can’t let the Spurs set the tempo and must force them into a half-court battle. That means protecting the perimeter and funneling drives into Gobert's length at the rim.
The multi-time Defensive Player of the Year recorded two or more blocks in three of the final four games against Denver and finished with one swat in the series opener against San Antonio.
With the Timberwolves slowing things down and making an effort to get back on defense, I like Gobert to turn away at least two field goal attempts tonight.
Game 3 Prop #3: Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds
At this point, we almost have to blindly bet Victor Wembanyama to top his rebound total. The Spurs’ 7-footer is cleaning the glass like Windex, grabbing 15 boards in each of the first two games of the series.
Wembanyama wrangled 15 rebounds in just 26 minutes thanks to the T-Wolves’ shit shooting in Game 2, which skews his stats a bit. Focusing on his 15 rebounds over 40 minutes in Game 1, those came from 23 rebounding chances at a pace that will likely mirror the tempo of Game 3.
Minnesota must be careful about its aggressiveness on the offensive glass, or it could allow the Spurs to push the pace with numbers in transition. As a result, don’t expect San Antonio to face much resistance on the defensive boards.
Wemby has snatched 13 or more rebounds in three straight games and in 10 of his last 14 outings. His game models range from 11.2 to 15.3 boards in Game 3, and I’m leaning toward the higher end of those projections tonight.
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