The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets tip off this afternoon in a battle of two of the NBA West's best, and the props board has some real value hiding in plain sight.
We dug into the game logs, defensive data, and Covers NBA player prop projections model edges to find the spots where the market got it wrong.
Here are our top Spurs vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 4.
Spurs vs Nuggets computer picks for April 4
 Spurs |
 Nuggets |
|---|---|
| Castle Under 8.5 assists +105 |
Murray Over 24.5 points -105 |
| Champagnie Over 4.5 rebounds -112 |
Braun Over 11.5 points -105 |
| Johnson Over 4.5 rebounds +105 |
Johnson Over 12.5 points -105 |
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Spurs computer picks
Stephon Castle Under 8.5 assists (+105)
Projection: 7.5 assists
San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle has averaged 8.5 assists over his last six games, though he cooled off with just five on Thursday.
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 23rd fewest assists over the last 10 games, and we agree with our Covers prop projections on Castle’s assist prop.
Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 rebounds (-112)
Projection: 5.6 rebounds
Julian Champagnie is averaging 5.1 rebounds over his last nine games and just hauled in eight on Thursday against the Clippers.
Champagnie’s 4.5 rebound prop line is simply set too low. Denver ranks 27th in defensive rebound rate over the last 10, giving the Spurs forward a clear path to grab five.
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Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 rebounds (+105)
Projection: 5.1 rebounds
Keldon Johnson is averaging 4.4 rebounds in March and hauled in seven against Denver just three weeks ago.
Over Covers projection model expects five boards today from the Spurs forward, and Denver ranks 27th in defensive rebound rate over the last 10 games, leaving the glass wide open for active forwards.
Nuggets computer picks
Jamal Murray Over 24.5 points (-112)
Projection: 25.6 points
Jamal Murray is averaging 30.7 points over his last seven games and just dropped 37 on Wednesday against Utah.
He's shooting over 52% from the floor during that stretch and has scored at least 20 in seven straight. San Antonio's defense is legit, but Murray in this form is a difficult assignment for anyone.
Christian Braun Over 11.5 points (+100)
Projection: 12.2 points
Christian Braun is averaging 13.2 points in March and scored 18 on Wednesday against Utah.
Braun runs the floor well, and his cuts to the cup will benefit from San Antonio's perimeter defense getting stretched thin when Nikola Jokic commands attention in the post, and Braun thrives in exactly those situations.
Cameron Johnson Over 12.5 points (-105)
Projection: 13 points
Cameron Johnson is averaging 12.4 points in March and just scored 19 against Utah on Wednesday. At +102 on a line his projection already clears, the market is essentially giving you plus money on a coin flip that the numbers say he should win.
With Jokic getting most of the Spurs' attention, Johnson's perimeter shooting gives him a good chance to clear his scoring prop.
How to watch Spurs vs Nuggets tonight
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, April 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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