If there were any doubts Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t in line to win this year’s NBA MVP award, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s star guard has a perfect opportunity to put that debate to bed in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs.
OKC hosts the Denver Nuggets and SGA’s biggest competition for MVP in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal tonight. I run down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds for this series opener and give my best NBA picks surrounding the OKC guard for May 5.
If you're looking for more action, our full Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions have you covered. 😎
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Over 6.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will undoubtedly be the focal point of the Denver defense in this series. The Nuggets must find a way to get the ball out of SGA’s hands and make the rest of OKC’s roster beat them.
In their regular season run-ins, Gilgeous-Alexander torched Denver for scoring outputs of 25, 28, 28, and 40 points. He also dished out assist totals of five, six, seven, and eight in those contests.
The Nuggets will throw different looks and pressures at SGA in Game 1, the same way it kept Kawhi Leonard guessing in Game 1 of their series with the L.A. Clippers. Keeping Gilgeous-Alexander out of the paint will be paramount, so expect Denver to sell out on helping when SGA drives to the hoop.
That will force him to move the ball and sets up plenty of drive-and-dish opportunities, kicking out to spot-up shooters or dumping down to cutters. Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC in potential assists against Memphis, with 12.3 potential dimes an outing — an advanced metric not too far off his regular season rate.
Game projections range from 6.5 to 7.1 assists from SGA, with my number at 6.8. Based on that forecast, the Over 6.5 assists should be priced around -106, and we’re seeing some sharper markets moving toward that after sitting as high as Over 6.5 +114.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
7+ assists
5+ rebounds
20+ points
The Nuggets need to get the ball out of SGA’s hands, and player projections are calling for seven assists.
His rebounding models hover around five boards. Oklahoma City’s defense should be able to take advantage of the heavy legs of a Denver team coming off a grueling seven-game series.
Scoring props call for 30+ points from SGA, but we’ll play it safe. The big spread indicates a one-sided finish (and maybe fewer minutes), and he will be the focus of the Nuggets’ defensive plans.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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