The reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder get the 2025-26 season started as they tip off against the Houston Rockets at Paycom Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off an MVP season, but a tough Rockets defense will look to contain SGA in the season opener.
I’ll explain why I’m fading SGA in my Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks on Tuesday, October 21.
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Rockets vs Thunder prediction
Rockets vs Thunder best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points (-115)
All eyes will be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when the 2025-26 NBA season tips off on Tuesday night. The Canadian comes into the new season as the reigning NBA MVP and Finals MVP after leading his Oklahoma City Thunder to their first championship in franchise history.
But with SGA’s opening-night line set at 31.5 points, I’ll actually be taking the Under against a tough Houston Rockets defense.
The Rockets lost a key defender this summer in Dillon Brooks, who was shipped to the Phoenix Suns as part of a blockbuster trade that saw Kevin Durant switch sides, but they still possess one of the best defensive lineups in the league.
Houston ranked fifth in defensive rating (110.3) and sixth in points against per game (109.8) last season, and the club still boasts plenty of elite defenders like Amen Thompson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Tari Eason.
SGA has also been a relatively slow starter, at least by his lofty standards. The Thunder superstar has scored Under 31.5 points in six of his previous seven season openers, averaging 24.3 points per game.
Rockets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Both teams boast some of the best defensive big men in the NBA, and I’m expecting both centers to have productive nights.
OKC big Chet Holmgren was tied for third in the league last season with 2.2 blocks per game, and he logged Over 1.5 blocks in each of his first five outings of 2024-25.
Houston center Alperen Sengun finished the last campaign with 10.2 boards per game and helped the Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding.
Rockets vs Thunder SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks
- Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Treys cool
While I’m not expecting SGA to blow the roof off on opening night, the MVP will drop at least a couple of treys. He averaged 2.3 makes from beyond the arc last season and had 2+ threes in each of his first four games of 2024-25.
The 37-year-old Durant will still have his magic touch from 3-point range in his Houston debut. Durant shot 43% from long range in 2024-25, good for 13th among players with at least 50 games played.
Rockets vs Thunder SGP
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points
- Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 rebounds
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 threes
- Kevin Durant Over 2.5 threes
Rockets vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Rockets +7.5 (-110) | Thunder -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Rockets +260 | Thunder -320
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Rockets vs Thunder betting trend to know
Oklahoma City went 35-6 at home last season, the best home record in the NBA. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Rockets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Tuesday, October 21, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Rockets vs Thunder latest injuries
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