The 2025-26 NBA season gets underway on Tuesday with the new-look Houston Rockets taking on the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston is led by former Thunder superstar Kevin Durant, who is on his fourth club since leaving OKC in 2016.
My Rockets vs Thunder props are backing KD to have a big game against his old team, but I'm also fading another former Thunder on his points prop.
I'm also betting on reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with my best free NBA picks and Rockets vs. Thunder predictions for Tuesday, October 21.
Best Rockets vs Thunder props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kevin Durant |
Over 24.5 points | -105 |
| Steven Adams |
Under 5.5 points | -120 |
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
Over 1.5 steals | -120 |
Prop #1: Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points
Kevin Durant is 37 years old, but he's still an elite scorer who averaged 26.6 points per game on 53/43/84 shooting splits last year. And that was while playing alongside Devin Booker, who also took plenty of shots.
Now he's the unquestioned go-to scorer for a Houston Rockets squad that will rely on him to carry the offensive load. KD fit in seamlessly with his new club in the preseason, scoring 35 points in 51 minutes despite looking to share the ball.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are an elite defensive team, but they play at a breakneck pace, which will lead to extra possessions for Houston. In addition, Jalen Williams is out with a wrist injury, and their other wing defenders won't match Durant's length.
Prop #2: Steven Adams Under 5.5 points
Rockets coach Ime Udoka has said that he plans to start a massive lineup with Steven Adams alongside Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith in the frontcourt. That lineup will struggle with spacing and will have a tough time defending the perimeter on the other end of the floor.
Books are overestimating Adams' offensive impact, especially since that starting lineup will likely be exposed, quickly leading to rotations featuring Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason instead of Adams.
Adams averaged just 3.9 points per game last year, with that number boosted in games when Smith was sidelined. He'll have a tough time getting good looks on the interior against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Prop #3: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals
The main reason the Rockets are experimenting with massive lineups is due to the season-ending injury to point guard Fred VanVleet. Durant will likely take over some of the ball-handling duties, but chemistry could lead to turnovers at the start of the season.
Second-year guard Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson will also work as ball-handlers, but their inexperience could also result in issues with ball security. That's bad news against an OKC lineup that pressures ball-handlers and jumps passing lanes.
Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't just a scoring machine, but he's also a tenacious defender who forces turnovers. He was fifth in the NBA with 1.7 steals per game last season and led the league with 2.0 in 2024.
Expect SGA to take advantage of some sloppy ball-handling and come away with at least two steals tonight.
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