Our NBA player prop projections are back for Saturday’s primetime matchup, and the model has spotlighted a few plays that really pop.
We ran the numbers, lined our projections up against the market, and locked in on the spots with genuine value.
For these Rockets vs. Knicks predictions, it’s not guesswork — it’s all driven by the data.
If you’re building your betting card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for February 21.
Rockets vs Knicks computer picks for February 21
 Rockets |
 Knicks |
|---|---|
| Durant u24.5 points -115 |
Brunson u26.5 points -125 |
| Thompson o4.5 assists -150 |
Anunoby o1.5 3-pointers made -180 |
| Sengun o9.5 rebounds +110 |
Robinson u7.5 rebounds -115 |
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Rockets computer picks
Kevin Durant Under 24.5 points (-115)
Projection: 24.4 points
Offensively, the Houston Rockets just haven’t had much juice lately — their 107.0 points per game over the last 20 outings ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league.
They’ve also been playing at the slowest pace in the NBA on the road this season, which really drags games into the mud.
On top of that, the New York Knicks have played at the third-slowest pace at home over their last 10 games. Fewer possessions overall isn’t great news for Kevin Durant, and that tempo setup works against his points prop.
Amen Thompson Over 4.5 assists (-150)
Projection: 5.0 assists
Amen Thompson has been doing a solid job setting the table lately, clearing this 4.5 assists line in six of his last 10 games. He’s been more comfortable running the offense, pushing the pace when he can, and creating easy looks for teammates rather than forcing his own shot.
With the ball in his hands more and his playmaking confidence growing, he’s consistently putting himself in position to rack up helpers — so this line feels pretty attainable if that trend continues.
Alperen Şengün Over 9.5 rebounds (+110)
Projection: 8.8 rebounds
Offensive rebounds are basically bonus possessions and more chances to score creates more opportunities for assists. The Rockets have been elite there, leading the league with 15.7 offensive boards per game this season.
That setup should give Alperen Şengün plenty of chances to cash in on the glass.
Knicks computer picks
Jalen Brunson Under 26.5 points (-125)
Projection: 25.3 points
The New York Knicks have been playing at a crawl offensively at home lately — over their last 10 games, they’ve had the third-slowest pace in the league.
Now they’re facing the Houston Rockets, who play at the slowest pace on the road this season.
Fewer possessions on both sides should mean fewer scoring chances overall, which isn’t exactly the ideal setup for Jalen Brunson to put up one of his usual big offensive nights.
OG Anunoby Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-180)
Projection: 2 3-pointers made
OG Anunoby has been quietly reliable from deep, clearing this 1.5 made threes line in seven of his last 10 games. He’s getting clean catch-and-shoot looks within the flow of the offense, and he hasn’t needed high volume to cash this number.
With his minutes steady and defenses often focused elsewhere, he keeps finding space on the perimeter. If he knocks down one early, he’s usually in great shape to get that second triple and push this prop Over again.
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 rebounds (-115)
Projection: 7.1 rebounds
Mitchell Robinson has gone Under this 7.5 line in six of his last 10 games, and the trend makes sense when you look at his role. His production tends to come in bursts — mostly off putbacks, lobs, and defensive activity — rather than steady offensive volume.
He’s also not a high-usage option, so if the pace slows down or the offense flows through other scorers, his opportunities can be limited. Unless he piles up extra chances on the glass or gets extended run, this number can be a tough one for him to clear consistently.
How to watch Rockets vs Knicks tonight
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Saturday, February 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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