Raptors vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Chef Serves Toronto

The Raptors' perimeter defense has been lacking for a while now, and Stephen Curry's not the type to let them get away with it. See why the Chef should cook from long range tonight in our NBA picks.

Last Updated: Jan 27, 2023 3:13 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes there are teams in sports betting where you just have to throw up your hands and say, “I don’t know what to do with you.”

Enter the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors have been a disappointment most of this season. To the point where many around the NBA are wondering whether Masai Ujiri is going to blow the team up prior to next month’s trade deadline.  But then you get performances from them like the other night. They went into Sacramento and dismantled a Kings team that entered the game playing very good basketball. 

Now, Toronto continues its season-long seven-game Western Conference road trip against the reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors, who are looking for more consistency themselves.

Can the Raptors keep up their strong play, or will the Splash Bros. make it rain and dampen their spirits? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Warriors on Friday, January 27.

Raptors vs Warriors best odds

Raptors vs Warriors picks and predictions

The Raptors’ inconsistencies make them an incredibly tough team to handicap at the moment. So, when looking at a team like the Raps I like to try and eliminate as many variables as possible and focus on one area of the game. This is something player props are perfect for.

One thing that has been consistent for the Raptors over the last six weeks or so has been their poor perimeter defense. The Raptors’ swarming defense has felt a little over-aggressive of late, allowing for a lot of open looks for opposing teams.

As a result, the Raptors rank 29th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 26th in opponent 3-pointers made per game since December 9. That includes allowing the Kings to hit 41% of the attempts from deep on Wednesday night.

And what are the Warriors known for again? Oh, right. Making it rain.

Speaking of making it rain, Steph Curry is putting up numbers that are close to matching his MVP seasons, averaging 29.3 points while shooting 42% from beyond the arc. He’s hit four or more threes in four consecutive games, hitting 40.8% of his attempts over that span. And we're getting plus money on the Over for Curry’s made threes prop against a shaky Raptors perimeter defense?

The box-and-one won’t save the Raps tonight.

My best bet: Steph Curry Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+110 at PointsBet)

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Raptors vs Warriors spread analysis

The Raptors opened this 2019 NBA Finals rematch as 5.5-point underdogs and have seen the early action with the line moving to Raptors +5.

Toronto's coming off playing its best all-around game in arguably a month. On offense, the Raps moved the ball well, assisting on 28 of their 48 baskets, and shot 49% from the floor. Pascal Siakam continued his strong play and we probably saw the best game of the season thus far from Precious Achiuwa

And it was great to see a defense that had been struggling limit a high-octane Kings attack to just 95 points. That ended a streak of 11 consecutive games for the Kings in which they scored 116 or more points, and it was the first time since December 11 that they failed to crack the century mark.

But the Raptors will have to keep that effort up if they hope to slow down the Warriors. The reigning champs have had their own struggles this season but those struggles aren’t normally found in the Chase Center, where the Dubs are 18-6 straight up and 14-9-1 against the spread this season. That includes a 122-120 win over the Memphis Grizzlies last time out.

One of the Warriors' big problems this season has been taking care of the basketball. They rank next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to turnover rate and tonight they go against the team that leads the NBA in steals.

There's just too much variance when it comes to this matchup. The Raptors are playing well, but that never seems to last. The Warriors are at home but turn over the ball too much. I think the Raptors' poor perimeter defense burns them at the end here but I would stay away from the spread.

Raptors vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 237.5 and it’s the Under seeing the early action, driving the number as low as 234.5 at some sportsbooks. But I think that may be low enough to attack the other side.

As noted, the Raptors' 3-point defense has been ugly lately and no team in the NBA attempts more shots from beyond the arc than the Warriors, while at the same time ranking sixth in 3-point shooting percentage. 

The Dubs ride that 3-point shooting to the third-highest-scoring offense in the league at 117.7 points per game, and that bumps up to 119.2 per contest when playing at home. 

On the other side, the Raptors' offense is starting to find its rhythm. Over the last five games, they rank 11th in scoring at 118 points per game and 10th in field goal percentage and should find some room to work against a Dubs’ team that ranks 17th in defensive rating and 27th in scoring defense, surrendering 118 points per game.

I would lean Over in this one.

Raptors vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in the Raptors' last seven road games and 5-2-1 in the Warriors' last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Warriors.

Raptors vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Friday, January 27, 2023
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET

Raptors vs Warriors key injuries


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