How We're Betting NBA Star Players on New Teams in 2023-24

The NBA offseason is an annual sideshow that’s almost taken on its own identity in the sports world. 

Equal parts soap opera and performance stunt, the player empowerment era has ushered in a flurry of NBA odds movement each summer, with bettors hanging onto every WojBomb, trade request, and salary cap adjustment. 

The summer of 2023 was no exception, with several massive trades, and at least one more to follow. But while a certain Bearded star awaits his fate, we’ve got a season to play out, with plenty of props and NBA futures markets to attack in the early going. 

One of the spots where bettors can find value is a player on a new team, whose change in roles may not be properly gauged. Let’s take a look at some big names in new threads and which NBA props you’ll want to back them for. 

Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks

Of course, the biggest rock to splash in the summer’s pond was the Damian Lillard trade, landing the Milwaukee Bucks a fringe-MVP talent to pair with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and creating — in terms of pure spacing gravity — arguably the greatest inside-outside offensive pairing in NBA history. 

Just how dangerous these two will be without defenses being able to sell out on either of them is difficult to comprehend, because we’ll never have seen anything quite like it. And with Lillard now operating as the lead ballhandler in a variety of Giannis-adjacent sets, he stands to benefit a great deal.

It’s going to take a while to figure out what, if anything, can be done about the Scylla-Charybdis choice defenses are going to have to make in Lillard-Giannis pick ‘n rolls — which you can bet your bottom dollar Milwaukee is going to run a ton of. 

In the meantime, Lillard will see more open shots than ever availed themselves in Portland, and, on plays where defenses choose to hedge above and stop his shot, he’ll have the league’s most dynamic roll threat in woefully inadequate coverage. 

Racking up assists to a rolling Giannis or in the dunker spot will be like shooting fish in a barrel for Lillard, who averaged 39.5 combined points and assists on the Blazers last year, but is seeing the market peddled at 34.5 (Over -105) at DraftKings for opening night. 

The hit in usage he’ll see playing alongside Giannis is baked in, but I don’t think he’ll see that much regression, particularly remaining as the lead ballhandler and likely siphoning playmaking touches from both Giannis and Khris Middleton. Lillard will score less but will have so many more assist opportunities and, in turn, have those converted with Giannis (without three defenders draped all over him) on the receiving end. 

As such, I’d target those points + assists markets until we get a sample of just how teams try and handle this Bucks offense — Damian Lillard odds aren’t juiced anywhere near as much as his assists totals (-145 for Over 6.5).

Damian Lillard prop pick: Over 34.5 points + assists (-115 at DraftKings)

Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics

Every action has a reaction, and after the Bucks acquired Lillard, the Boston Celtics turned around and swiped Jrue Holiday — whom Milwaukee gave up for Dame — from the Blazers, setting up several compelling subplots for the likely Eastern Conference Finals. 

Holiday’s exact role with the Celtics remains unclear, and while he’s likely to start most games, Boston’s loaded Top 6 makes for plenty of lineup options, especially with, effectively, two bigs and two point guards. 

If Holiday spends a lot of time playing alongside starters Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis, he’ll be heavily neutered as a scorer, and will probably have a tough time beating the 15.5 points total books have him set at most nights.

But, Holiday’s more of a scorer than either Al Horford or Derrick White, and he could be used to prop up the Celtics’ suddenly bereft second unit, creating far more potential for him to bully weaker defenders in higher-usage scenarios. 

If Joe Mazzulla’s toggling how he uses Holiday on a night-to-night basis, it may get too hairy to keep up with, turning Jrue Holiday odds into more of a spot bet. But keep an eye for early indications with his minutes — especially against big vs. small teams — to help guide your play in this market.

Jrue Holiday prop pick: wait and see, depending on lineup patterns

Kristaps Porzingis, Boston Celtics

Holiday wasn’t the only big-name arrival in Beantown this summer, with the Celts also landing Porzingis from the Washington Wizards’ clearance sale. The move pairs Tatum and Brown with a legit scoring big for the first time and also presents value against rebound totals. Opening Kristaps Porzingis odds are relatively unjuiced at 7.5 across major outlets. 

Porzingis averaged 8.4 rebounds in 65 games last season, and has, in fact, averaged north of 7.5 every season since 2017-18. Obviously, those numbers aren’t entirely telling of how he’ll perform in Boston, but several indicators point to similar — and potentially greater — production.

The Celtics averaged slightly more shot attempts than the Wizards last season — both self and opponent — and while they obviously converted those attempts at a higher rate, the difference (fourth vs. 13th in eFG%) isn’t as stark as the teams’ reputations would have you think. You can inversely safely assume the Celts (second in defensive rating) will force more misses than the Wiz (21st).

Boston and Washington played at identical paces last season, and the Celtics are likely to open things up more if anything this year — with so many threats on offense, they won’t be stuck in stagnant offensive sets as much, creating potential upside for less clock-bleeding and even more shot attempts. 

Al Horford also seems like the most likely odd-man-out in Boston’s Top 6, at least at first, making Porzingis the de facto rebounding funnel in a starting lineup with four perimeter players who mostly rebounded by committee last season. 

Especially on nights where Horford sits (watch out for back-to-backs), Porzingis will see potentially more minutes (Boston’s frontcourt is Wemby’s-arms-thin), pretty much all of which will be as a solo big. If books don’t toggle accordingly at first, there could be even more value lying in wait. 

Kristaps Porzingis prop pick: Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at FanDuel)

Bradley Beal, Phoenix Suns

Beal stole some of the offseason’s first headlines when he was shipped to the Phoenix Suns, creating an offense-heavy Big 3 that also left Phoenix, effectively, without a point guard in its rotation. 

And while ESPN’s depth chart lists Beal as the “point guard” on paper, it’s Devin Booker who established himself as a capable playmaker in last season’s playoffs, and figures to be the “lead ballhandler”, whatever that looks like on this team. He’s the incumbent who’s earned the role. 

I hate to reduce a player as talented as Beal to a spacing threat, but when he’s playing alongside Booker and Kevin Durant, that’s sadly what he’s going to have to be sometimes. That means a higher proportion of his shot diet will naturally become wide-open and catch-and-shoot threes, which, despite his overall 3-point shooting regressing violently in years past, have remained strong:

Bradley Beal on catch-and-shoot 3s the last 5 years: 37.1%

Bradley Beal on wide-open 3s the last 5 years: 41.1%

— Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) June 18, 2023

It seems fairly indicative that Beal’s shooting regressed because of a high volume of contested, off-the-dribble threes when defenses could key in on him in a way they’ll be utterly incapable of this season. 

So while Beal’s usage will fall, if he’s taking a bigger portion of his shots from beyond the arc, and hitting them at a higher rate, he should be able to do a bit better than the career-low 1.6 he hit last season on the fewest attempts since his rookie year. 

Books are opening Bradley Beal odds for 3-pointers at 1.5, with several, including DraftKings and BetMGM offering plus money on the Over. Feel free to, like Beal, fire away in the early season.

Bradley Beal prop pick: Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+110 at DraftKings)

Jordan Poole & Tyus Jones, Washington Wizards

For my last pick, we're venturing a little outside the "star" realm, but for a low-key spot bettors shouldn't sleep on.

We've mentioned the Washington Wizards; they’re going to be pretty crappy this year. But that’s not going to stop me from doubling down on their new backcourt's potential. In fact, it’s only enabling me, especially when most of the betting public is ignoring them. 

First off are Jordan Poole odds, benefiting from the greenest of green lights on a team with pitiful offensive depth. He was my best-value MIP odds pick in my 2023-24 futures picks piece a few weeks back, and his odds in that market have only improved since. He’s a natural scorer on a team with zero expectation to be good this season — Poole can chuck up shots as liberally as he’d like after relative restraint in Golden State.

Books are trading his points totals at 24.5 unjuiced (bet365) or 23.5 with some vig to pay (-130, PointsBet), and either seems fine to target in the early season, depending on your risk aversion. Poole’s a brash, flashy player who will look to make a statement after the Warriors effectively cut him loose, and he’ll have every opportunity to. 

Jones is another breakout candidate who spent several seasons in Memphis as the NBA’s most overqualified backup PG, and now gets to run his own show. He'd garner more MIP buzz himself if he hadn’t bordered on “so underrated he’s overrated” status for the past two years. 

Nonetheless, he averaged 16/8/4 as a starter in 22 games Ja Morant missed last season, and there’s reason to assume his usage will only increase in Washington, where he’ll have fewer capable options around him. While Jones is certainly a pass-first PG, he’s also a confident shooter, and will call his own number if given a lane. 

While books have planned ahead and set Tyus Jones odds at 8.5 assists (+117 Over at BetRivers), his points + rebounds + assists market still sits at 24.5, decently below the 28.5 he averaged as a starter last year. 

And while both these guys’ usage will increase, it should also be extrapolated at a faster pace. Not only will Poole be launching plenty of early-shot-clock attempts, but the Wizards, by design, will want to trend to a fast play as a tanking franchise. 

Pioneered by the Process Sixers, playing at a faster pace leads to a larger sample size of possessions, reducing the short-term variance in any given game and increasing the likelihood, in theory, that the worse team will lose. With the Wizards owing a Top-12 protected pick in 2024, they’ll want to maximize their equity in being awful, so don’t be shocked when they’re among the league’s pace leaders. 

Jordan Poole prop pick: Over 24.5 points (-113 at BetRivers)
Tyus Jones prop pick: Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106 at Caesars)

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