Best NBA Player Props Today: Brunson Makes it Rain on NOLA

Prop bet #1: Brunson bomber

Jalen Brunson is coming off the best season of his career as an NBA pro, but he’s also coming off a disappointing turn as the lead guard for Team USA. Far from resting on his laurels after an All-NBA-worthy performance last year, Brunson has made a distinct effort to add to his game in the offseason.

Brunson is always going to make his money in and around the basket. His strength and footwork are the very best for a guard and among the best of any player pound for pound in the NBA. Those moves allow him to torture bigger and faster opponents inside regularly, and most players who mastered a skill to that degree might be content to lean on it.

Not so with Brunson. Jalen shot a blistering 41.6% from three last season but on only 4.7 attempts. He also flashed the ability to generate these shots on his own steam rather than as the recipient of a pass. After being assisted on around 80% of his threes in his first four seasons per Cleaning the Glass, that dropped to 57% last season.

After going 3-for-8 from downtown in the season opener against Boston, it was clear Brunson was going to look for the long ball more this year. Then in the game against the Atlanta Hawks last night, Brunson burned Trae Young and Atlanta over and over again with off-the-dribble threes. Brunson finished 8 of 12 from downtown.

The ease and comfort he had taking those shots was remarkable. This is a new Brunson from the perimeter, and lines this low won’t be available for much longer.

Jalen Brunson prop: Over 2.5 made threes

Prop bet #2: JV Gets Squeezed

Jonas Valanciunas is a great rebounder, but for two reasons I think he’ll grab 10 boards or fewer.

The first and most obvious reason is that the New York Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. That starts with their center rotation. Mitchell Robinson is a beast on the offensive glass and his backup, Isaiah Hartenstein, is also a smart and tough positional defender.

But the Knicks also get strong rebounding efforts from Julius Randle and Josh Hart and have an underrated rebounding guard in Immanuel Quickley as well.  In short, there will be no easy boards when JV is on the floor. 

Then there are reasons to think he won’t be on the floor that much. A key one is Larry Nance Jr. is back in action, and when healthy, he often closes for New Orleans at the five. With the Pelicans also talking about playing Zion Williamson more at the five this season, JV is the one that is going to get squeezed in the rotation.

Nance provides a stretch five option that is proven to give the Knicks trouble, so I expect even if he’s effective that Valanciunas will play a relatively limited role on Saturday. 

Jonas Valanciunas prop: Under 10.5 rebounds

Prop bet #3: Uh oh Embiid

Two things were obvious from watching Joel Embiid’s debut against the Milwaukee Bucks. One is that he’s still very much working his way back into rhythm. He looked fatigued early in the game, and clearly suffered from a lack of preseason availability and ramp-up time.

But the second was how much he clearly missed James Harden. Harden is a master pick-and-roll passer, and fed Embiid a steady diet of perfect pocket passes on the roll last season. Embiid’s looks were much more difficult in the opener, and he often had to initiate the offense himself from the post instead. 

He finished the game with a staggering seven turnovers. I’m betting he’ll have at least five more tonight. The Bucks aren’t exactly known for forcing giveaways either, nor do they have personnel at all comparable to the Raptors in terms of being able to force them.

There might be a new coach and a new scheme, but the institutional knowledge of how to defend against Embiid is still strong in Toronto. Like the Bucks, they’ll double Embiid off the bounce. With a live dribble, Embiid is a much weaker passer and much more likely to throw it away in traffic.

Joel Embiid prop: Over 4.5 turnovers