Best NBA Player Props Today: Going Under Times Three

Prop bet #1: Inauspicious Andrew

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot. Steph Curry is sidelined with injury and Draymond Green just got hit with a five-game suspension for putting Rudy Gobert in a sleeper hold. But those are temporary problems. More concerning is the play of some of the Warriors’ core players, including Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins was an All-Star two seasons ago, and arguably the second most important player during their most recent title run. It appeared he had turned over a new leaf, one of consistent aggression and effort on both ends. 

That he slumped late last year was easily explained away because he missed most of the season for personal reasons. So, when he looked off in the playoffs, it seemed fair to assume he just never got back up to speed.

But the problem has now extended into this season. Wiggins has simply not been an impact player (or, more precisely, a positive impact player) through 12 games, and his outside shot has completely deserted him. 

Wiggins is shooting an almost impossibly poor 15.2% from the outside, and it’s clear his confidence from deep has hit rock bottom. He’s made five total threes on the year and is yet to make two or more in any single game this season. Until he proves otherwise, I’m taking this Under against any semi-competent defense.

Andrew Wiggins prop: Under 1.5 made threes (-150 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Benign Butler

The Miami Heat are in the middle of an impressive six-game win streak. But perhaps what’s most impressive is that they’ve done it without Jimmy Butler taking a leading role. Butler scored 32 points against the lowly Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday but has otherwise not looked like the same player that led Miami to the NBA Finals last summer.

Butler has often been accused of passive play prior to the playoffs, but that has mostly been a misconception. Last year, Butler was a dominant force, his usage was in the 91st percentile among forwards, and was literally the most efficient forward in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

This year he ranks in the 55th percentile in efficiency and has also seen a small decline in usage. While still elite at drawing fouls, the percentage of plays in which he’s doing so has also fallen. In part, that’s because he’s only getting to the rim on 36% of his shots, a steep drop from 45% last season. 

Indeed, Butler’s effectiveness from everywhere on the court has fallen outside of the perimeter, and his overall production so far is being buoyed by unsustainably hot shooting from deep.

The Brooklyn Nets are a team of wing-sized players, well suited to guarding Butler, and they also work to defend the paint. Brooklyn is good at denying the rim, which is Butler’s most effective avenue of attack. They sell out on the perimeter to do so, but that’s not a likely path to a Butler Over even if he has shot well from outside on a low volume.

Jimmy is averaging 20 points and has only scored enough to cash this number twice in 10 games this season.

Jimmy Butler prop: Under 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Bridge(s) to nowhere

When the Nets relented and traded Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns last year, it was the end of one of the most disappointing eras in NBA basketball. But, as a consolation prize, they netted Mikal Bridges, who in turn began to play like a certified star down the stretch of the season.

Some assumed he would carry that production and efficiency over into the new campaign, but that has not yet come to fruition. Mikal hasn’t been bad by any means, but he’s far from the player some had him pegged as last March.

Bridges is scoring just over 20 points per game and is also struggling from the outside. He’s shooting 29.2% from three, down to 23.5% over his last five games. And because he so rarely gets to the rim, he’s having a hard time staying efficient as a No.1 option.

Butler and the Heat are a tough nut to crack even for legitimate superstars on offense, and Bridges certainly isn’t there just yet. In eleven games he’s scored 24 points or more just three times. It helps that the Heat and Nets are also both in the bottom half of the league in pace, as that lowers his opportunities to go Over this number.

Mikal Bridges prop: Under 23.5 points (-120 at bet365)