Best NBA Player Props Today: Middleton Contained From Deep

Prop bet #1: Dodged Derrick

Derrick White is the ultimate do-it-all role player and while the go-to cliche is to say that players like him do so much that doesn’t turn up in the box score, a great deal of it does result in counting stats in White's case.

For instance, White is around the basket much more than a typical guard, because White is one of the best rim-protecting guards in the entire NBA. While I don’t feel there’s great value on his blocks prop Saturday, his presence around the rim does open an opportunity for a different set of Derrick White odds, namely on the glass.

The Pelicans are a strong rebounding team, but that is in large part due to the handiwork of one Jonas Valanciunas. Jonas is an outstanding rebounder and the New Orleans Pelicans rebound much better with him on the floor.

However, I suspect Jonas will be played off the court due to the combination of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford’s outside shooting. Willie Green has not hesitated to bench Jonas after the first half to match up with smaller and stretchier opponents, as he did just recently when the Pelicans matched up with the Thunder.

Without Jonas, the Pels' rebounding becomes much less imposing. Larry Nance Jr is 6-foot-9 and a mediocre rebounder for a big on both ends and Zion Williamson is one of the most disappointing rebounders in the NBA given his physical profile.

White is averaging 6.1 boards in March and has had at least five in 12 of his last 14 games. This prop feels like a steal to get at plus money odds.

Derrick White prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Khris middling

Khris Middleton has now been back in action for five games following his long-term injury absence. He seemed to show little sign of rust at all initially. He scored 22 points in each of his first two games and went 4-7 from downtown.

Since then, however, he’s just 4-19 from deep. Shooting is all about rhythm and Khris is clearly not in it, but the reason I like these Khris Middleton odds isn’t even as much about his shooting percentages as it is about his volume.

Middleton has never been a high-volume 3-point shooter. He’s more of a midrange guy and a foul drawer. In December and January of this season, he never averaged more than 2.1 made threes, and in November, he only managed 1.2 per game. 

Even when he’s shot well, he doesn’t tend to up his volume.

With Trae Young out of the lineup, the Atlanta Hawks don’t play a lot of defensive zeroes on the wing. They play a lot of inconsistent players sure, but Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, and Wesley Matthews at their best are all solid defensive options against Middleton. 

In his last 12 games, Middleton has made three or more treys just once.

Khris Middleton prop: Under 2.5 made threes (-150 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Bank on Brown

The Boston Celtics are having a historic season, which is the result of many of their core stars turning in career years. 

Foremost among them is Jaylen Brown. While many raised eyebrows last summer when he received the richest contract to date in NBA history, Brown has responded by playing by far the best basketball of his career.

Brown is a willing gunner from the outside, but he’s also a power player, driving and finishing with force and through contact. While Jayson Tatum and many of the other Celtics want to play outside in, Brown can often act as the counter-balancing force by pressuring the basket and creating easy looks for others.

His aggressiveness pays dividends in other ways too. Brown is in the 89th percentile among all wings in drawing free throws, per Cleaning the Glass. While he’s had some issues converting at the line this season, those are still among the most efficient shots one can get.

The Pelicans are a favorable matchup for Brown because while they have Herb Jones as an outstanding perimeter defender, their interior defense is weaker than most. 

Valanciunas doesn’t defend well in space, Nance is overstretched playing the five for long stretches against elite teams, and Trey Murphy III is not yet a quality 1-on-1 defender. With Jones likely guarding Tatum, Brown will have the green light to attack.

These Jaylen Brown odds have also come in puzzling low. Brown is averaging 28 points over his last 10 games and it’s not like this should be a walkover for Boston as the Pels have the fifth-best net rating in the Association and are playing at home. With enough minutes played, this line seems far too low for how easily Brown has been scoring.

Jaylen Brown prop: Over 21.5 points (-115 at bet365)