Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Butler Torches the Knicks at the Garden

The NBA regular season is almost wrapped up with less than two weeks remaining on the schedule.

Wednesday serves up 10 tilts on the hardwood and a massive menu of wagering options for basketball bettors, including plenty of player props.

I dig through those individual odds and give my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for March 29.

NBA player props for March 29

• Butler Over 23.5 points
• Booker Over 27.5 points
• Lyles Over 4.5 rebounds

Picks made on 3/29/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

New York State of Mind

The last time Jimmy Butler faced the New York Knicks, the Miami Heat star poured in 35 points at home on March 22. And in the meeting prior to that, Butler put up 33 points on New York in South Beach on March 3.

This classic Eastern rivalry swings over to the Mecca on Wednesday night with Butler’s point prop parked as low as 23.5 points (Over -113) in New York. Butler sat out last night’s game against the Toronto Raptors, citing a sore neck, but is rested and ready to knock around the Knicks once again.

It isn’t just New York that’s felt the wrath of Butler this month. The veteran forward has picked up his play as the postseason looms large, averaging almost 27 points in his last 12 appearances going back to that 33-point eruption against the Knicks.

Butler is shooting an incredible 56.6% from the field while attacking the paint and drawing fouls. He’s getting to the line for more than 11 free throws per contest in those 12 games while cashing in an average of 9.8 foul shots.

Butler had a down day versus Brooklyn at home Saturday, shooting 6 for 13 from the floor but going just 5 for 7 from the stripe for 18 points in 33 minutes.

In his last two matchups with New York, Butler has been to the line a combined 34 times and has made 29 of those freebies. Tonight’s crew chief referee is Tony Brothers, who ranks 25th in fouls called per game (41.7) among 125 NBA officials.

Before the 18-point effort against the Nets on the weekend (which stayed Under his point prop of 24.5), Butler had topped his scoring total in nine straight games. I’ll bite again on Butler in MSG tonight.

Jimmy Butler prop: Over 23.5 Points (-115)

Open Book

The big news in the NBA on Wednesday is the potential return of Phoenix Suns star Kevin Durant, who played just three games for his new team before a freak ankle injury in warmup cost him the last 10 contests.

The return of Durant also has bookies pegging the points prop for fellow Suns superstar Devin Booker. 

Tonight’s points total at home to Minnesota is as short as 27.5 points (Over -115), compared to Booker’s previous projections which have been between 30.5 and 32.5 over the past five games.

Booker has gone Under his point total in his last three games — averaging just over 28 points in that span — after topping his total in five of the previous seven contests. Ever since Durant went down, Booker has averaged 31.7 points while attempting 20.3 field goals along with 7.6 free throws over those 10 outings.

While it’s a small sample size, Durant’s presence didn’t impact Booker’s output in his three games for Phoenix in early March. In fact, it made him better.

Booker put up 37 points on 15-of-26 shooting and 35 points on 12-of-24 shooting with Durant working limited minutes in his first two games. And even in the one game with Durant playing a regular workload, Booker scored 36 points and went 15 for 25 in a win over Dallas on March 5.

Durant may be back to a minutes restriction again as he returns to action, but his presence on the floor makes defenses have to pick their poison between Phoenix’s two studs.

Booker thrived in isolation with Durant drawing defenders and the Suns’ spot-up shooters spacing the floor, averaging 12 points in the paint over those three games with Durant — an uptick from his average of 9.2 PITP — and hitting at a 56% clip in that three-game span.

With KD expected back, I’m buying low on Booker to keep the points coming.

Devin Booker prop: Over 27.5 points (-118)

Rebound Royalty

The Sacramento Kings get another chance to finally secure their first postseason spot in 16 years when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

Sacramento couldn’t give the home crowd what they’ve been longing for in a loss to Minnesota on Monday. But according to tonight’s sizable spread, the Kings are coming for blood against a Blazers team rolling on a skeleton crew to close out the schedule.

Portland is missing a number of key players, including marching out a thin frontcourt that’s missing Jusuf Nurkic, Cam Reddish, Trendon Watford, and Jerami Grant. Add in the backcourt absence of Damian Lillard, and the Trail Blazers are down six of their top eight rebounders on the season.

Even when healthy, Portland was poor on the boards. The team owns the 25th-ranked rebound rate on the season (48.9%) and has been absolutely worked on the glass during its current 10-game skid (1-9 straight up), with an -8.8 rebound edge in that span.

With the point spread as big as Kings -13.5, I’m cautious to go to the starters for player props due to the possibility of sitting in the second half of a blowout.

So, I swing my attention to Sacramento backup forward Trey Lyles.

Lyles enjoyed 22 minutes of floor time in Monday’s loss to Minnesota and pulled down a season-high 11 rebounds. The 6-foot-9 Kentucky product has been a bigger part of the Kings' rotation in March, watching his minutes climb as well as his rebounding totals.

He’s averaging 5.4 boards per outing in March and faces a rebound prop of 4.5 (Over -145) tonight. He’s snatched five or more rebounds in eight of his 12 appearances this month and not only goes against a soft Portland frontcourt on the glass, but will also log more minutes as Sacramento turns to its reserves in a game that reeks of a blowout.

Trey Lyles prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (-145)

Pages related to this topic