We bid farewell to another fantastic weekend of basketball betting. And while the NBA may be second fiddle to the continuing rounds of the college tournament, the Association doesn’t skimp on scheduling Sunday.
We’ve got nine matchups on the NBA odds board today, which means almost endless options when you starting pulling out the NBA player props. I comb Sunday’s slate and give my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for March 26.
NBA player props for March 26
Picks made on 3/26/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
The Memphis Grizzlies head to the ATL today and bookies are projecting plenty of points, with the total soaring as high as 245.5 at some shops.
The math behind that tall total is simple enough: Memphis has a motor and wants to attack the rim, and Atlanta can counter punch with points but stinks at protecting the paint. That has my eye swinging to Grizzlies' forward Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson stepped up big time for Memphis when Ja Morant was away from the team, and even with the star guard back in the mix, JJJ is set up to keep the points coming Sunday. He’s averaging 22.4 points this month and upped that to almost 28 points over the past six games, seeing an uptick in touches with Morant out.
He takes on a horrible Hawks' interior that allows 58.5 points in the paint this month and touts the 24th-ranked defense so far in March. The Grizzlies' versatile big man averages nearly 12 points in the paint per game since the All-Star break and can stretch this Atlanta defense with his shooting touch.
Jackson’s field goal attempts were at almost 18 per game in those past six outings, but even when he played just 26 minutes and attempted 13 shots against Houston Friday, he still managed 18 points in a blowout win over the Rockets.
His point total for tonight is at 18.5 (Over -115) and even if you run Jackson Jr. on the low end of projections — with Morant likely seeing a minutes increase and taking away touches — he’s still landing around this number before you factor in his recent hot hand and the advantageous matchup against the Hawks' defense.
He’s gone Over his point total in seven of his last 10, with books discounting his scoring Over/Under too much Sunday after a light minutes load Friday and with Morant back in the mix. There are plenty of points to go around with a total this tall.
I will say, as is the case with all Jackson Jr. props: foul trouble will always be an issue. So, cross your fingers that he stays on the floor because his ceiling is much higher than 18.5 points today.
Jaren Jackson Jr. prop: Over 18.5 Points (-115)
Downtown Jaylen Brown
The Boston Celtics seem to be righting the ship after rough waters in the post-break sked. Boston has won two straight and gets a gift from the schedule gods Sunday, with the San Antonio Spurs coming to Beantown.
Boston is a sizable favorite, even with star Jayson Tatum listed as “iffy” for this non-conference clash. Tatum is nursing a sore hip, and with the Celtics listed as 16-point home chalk, this showdown with the sad sack Spurs is a safe rest spot should head coach Joe Mazzulla choose to do so.
Tatum’s absence leaves the door open for a big day from Jaylen Brown, who has a points prop as high as 28.5 today. Given that San Antonio sucks and has a number of standouts on the fence for this game, the worry of a Boston blowout and sitting starters in the second half has me passing on Brown’s point total.
But I do like his Over on 3-pointers made.
Brown is shooting just Under seven 3-point attempts per game this month, knocking down an average of 2.6 for a 39.2% success rate. However, Brown has had the hot hand in recent outings, averaging 3.7 triples a contest on 7.7 attempts the past six games (47.8%), and could see even more touches from distance if Tatum is slowed or sidelined.
He’s made three or more triples in five of his last six games, and the Celtics aren’t shy about letting it fly from deep, hoisting up 43.3 shots from downtown this month (second most in the NBA). San Antonio is a wretched defense and stinks at protecting the perimeter, with opponents enjoying a 39.3% clip from distance on the season — worst in the Association.
Brown's 3-point prop for tonight is at 2.5 triples made with the juice on the Over implying around 58% probability. Given his recent hot hand (almost 48% from distance), Tatum’s unknown involvement (Tatum attempting almost 10 threes per game this month), and Mazzulla stressing a ton of takes from outside, Brown should see the volume needed to bag three or more from beyond the arc.
Jaylen Brown prop: Over 2.5 threes made (-134)
The Oklahoma City Thunder will head to Portland to take on the Trail Blazers tonight and are clinging to the 10th spot in the West — AKA the final ticket to the play-in tournament.
The Blazers are a bad defense and could be even worse with a skeleton crew for tonight’s game, as many starters are out of action. Oklahoma City has an ambitious team total of 120.5 points, meaning Thunder point guard Josh Giddey will be wheeling and dealing for OKC.
So far this month, he’s averaging 7.5 assists per game and I have him projected to pass for almost eight dimes this evening. And that’s before you factor in a thin Blazers roster against OKC’s crazy pace and a defense that ranks near the bottom in assists allowed per game (26.4 — 29th) and assist per field goal made (62.1% — 25th).
Giddey had seven helpers against the Lakers’ stingy defense last time out and has eclipsed his assist prop total only four times in the past 10 games, with that total usually parked at 6.5. Books aren’t making much of a move off Portland’s missing pieces or the expected scoring spike from Oklahoma City, keeping Giddey’s assist total at 6.5 with the Over paying +102.
The Trail Blazers struggle to slow down transition teams like OKC (1.16 points per play — 11th most) and fail to protect the paint on the best of days, giving up 52.7 PITP per contest this month (eighth most). Now take frontcourt starters Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant out of the mix, and Portland is missing beef in the middle.
Portland’s current lineup just allowed 33 total assists to a ho-hum Chicago offense along with 52 points in the paint Friday. The Thunder’s up-tempo attack will make quick work of that defense with Giddey fueling the fire with at least seven dimes.
Josh Giddey prop: Over 6.5 Assists (+102)