Best NBA Player Props Today: Embiid Slated to Go Off On Washington

Prop bet #1: MVP process

Joel Embiid will face the Washington Wizards tonight. While typically, this would be a situation where one might worry about a blowout and Embiid sitting in the fourth quarter, it's less of a concern for this specific matchup thanks to how the schedule has been arranged with the NBA In-Season Tournament.

The Philadelphia 76ers haven't played a game since last Friday, and this isn't the front end of a back-to-back or anything like that. Not only has the entire 76ers team had a break, but Embiid himself hasn't played since November 27, as he missed the two games before the break due to an illness. In other words, this isn't a scenario where the 76ers will be looking to give Embiid some rest; if anything, they will be trying to work him back into game shape.

The bottom line is the Wizards simply don't have an answer on the defensive end for someone with Embiid's size and skill set. In their earlier meeting this year, Embiid dropped 29 points on the Wizards in the third quarter alone while scoring 48 points in the game in just 31 minutes of action. The Wizards will attempt to make some defensive adjustments to slow Embiid down, but they simply don't have the personnel on the roster to completely take him out of the game.

Embiid is projected to score 33.3 points tonight, allowing us to price the Over 31.5 points at -127, but it is available at BetMGM for -105. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 9%.

Joel Embiid prop: Over 31.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: An over-adjustment

Dejounte Murray was one of my most profitable players in the assists market last season, and tonight against the Brooklyn Nets, he is being completely disrespected with this line. FanDuel has dropped Murray's assists total from the usual line of 5.5 down to 4.5 because Murray has gone Under the total in four straight games. Thanks, FanDuel, we will take it from here.

The Atlanta Hawks just played the Brooklyn Nets on November 22, and the Nets struggled to contain both Murray and Trae Young. The Hawks' backcourt combined for 63 points and 17 assists, with Murray contributing eight of those dimes.

Murray will always get his usual assists from some of the shooters on the Hawks like Saddiq Bey and Bogdan Bogdanovic, but it's the lob threats of Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela that open the door to some easy helpers against Brooklyn. The Nets only have one rim protector on their roster in Nic Claxton, so when he is out of the game, Murray has an opportunity to steal some easy assists with his bigs at the rim.

This bet comes down to attacking an adjusted line and a rogue price. The sportsbooks can drop the total down to 4.5, but they have to leave the juice higher than -132, and several sportsbooks did do that, but not FanDuel and that is why we have a bet to place.

Murray is projected to drop 5.6 dimes against the Nets on Wednesday, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -186.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 4.5 assists (-132 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Expect steam 

The Chicago Bulls are on the verge of a rebuild as they attempt to trade Zach LaVine and some of their other veteran pieces. For the time being, LaVine is the only player sitting out for the Bulls as they attempt to trade him, while players like Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan continue to play.

For someone like Vucevic, when you take a high-usage player out of the lineup like LaVine, you'd expect to see Vucevic's usage increase, and that is exactly what has happened. In the two games without LaVine in the lineup, Vucevic's usage has increased by 2.6%, and we even saw him play 40 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The increased usage for Vucevic is relevant here because while it is increasing, his points total has actually dropped down a point from 17.5 to 16.5. I believe we're on the verge of seeing multiple opportunities to exploit an expanded role on Vucevic with his player props until the market catches up. Let's just hope he scores 17 points against the Charlotte Hornets and not 30, so we can run this back next game.

Vucevic is projected to score 18.9 points tonight, which allows us to price the Over 16.5 points at -161. You will want to get at this prop before your lunch break, though, as I fully expect it to steam up to 17.5 points.

Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 16.5 points (-125 at BetMGM)