Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Tough Sledding For Jalen in Philly

For our NBA player prop picks for Monday, December 5, I'm banking on Shai-Gilgeous Alexander continuing to beat the NBA odds before highlighting why Jalen Green’s turnover issues are unlikely to change against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Lastly, we take a closer look at Kelly Oubre’s erratic shooting. Read more below.

NBA player props for December 5

• Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points (-115)
• Green Over 2.5 turnovers (-145)
• Oubre Jr. Under 2.5 made threes (-165)

Picks made on 12/5/2022 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Underestimating SGA

Much ink has already been spilled singing the praises of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season…and yet clearly not enough. Despite being the breakout player of the season, averaging career highs across the board and leading the league in 30-point games, he’s still being routinely underestimated by sportsbooks. 

SGA has paid out on more points Over bets than just about any player this season. He has hit the Over on his points total in six straight games, and in a staggering nine out of his last 10. SGA is playing like an All-NBA first-team guard and yet oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to Shai’s new normal. 

SGA drains it just before the buzzer pic.twitter.com/u3Z8850mhK

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) December 4, 2022

He’s almost an anachronism, a star quality guard who rarely shoots threes and plays pretty much below the rim. He puts opponents off balance with a single hard dribble, stops short to get a tiny bit of separation and then finishes with a short jumper in the lane that bears an uncanny resemblance to certain Chicago Bulls shooting guard of yore. It’s simple and devastatingly effective.

Shai is also a nasty mismatch hunter, and one of the most frequent and effective isolation scorers in the NBA this year. His isolation frequency is greater than all but four players, and well above-average efficiency on those shots. The Atlanta Hawks do their best to hide Trae Young, but Shai has a knack for forcing the issue against an opponent's weak links.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop: Over 30.5 points (-115)

Green's giveaways

The Houston Rockets are really young and predictably pretty bad. They show immense potential, but they make all the routine errors you expect from young teams. Perhaps no young Rocket better represents the current gap between potential and reality better than Jalen Green.

Green has all the makings of an All-Star shooting guard someday, but he’s going to take his lumps in the process. And one of the biggest lumps for him so far has been turnovers.

Turnovers are one of the things that all young guards — even the ones destined for greatness — struggle with early in their careers. You generally see a fairly linear improvement by players who shoulder a lot of the offensive load year over year in terms of turning the ball over less.

But not always. Green is averaging 3.6 giveaways per game this season, and his 13.7% turnover rate is actually up from his rookie season. He’s also had four turnovers or more in six of his last nine games. 

That figures to continue tonight as he faces a nightmare matchup for any inexperienced ballhandler in Philadelphia 76ers guard De’Anthony Melton. He has an 8-foot-3.5 standing reach and to my mind, the best anticipation of any defensive guard in the NBA save perhaps Gary Payton II.

Melton has been starting in James Harden’s absence, and he’s infused the 76ers with his particular brand of chaos. He’s a menace on and off the ball, and one of the best defensive playmakers in the NBA. 

He’s Top 5 in both deflections per game and total deflections on the season. His 3.2% steal percentage is the best among all guards in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass, and his teammate Matisse Thybulle is the league leader among wings. That spells trouble for a sometimes shaky dribbler like Green to be facing on Monday.

Jalen Green Prop: Over 2.5 turnovers (-145)

Kelly No J

Kelly Oubre is a perpetually mercurial player. He looks like he should be an archetypal 3-and-D wing, but that look is mostly an illusion. He does some nice things on both sides of the ball but is frequently a confounding player in terms of feel and knowing what play to make and when.

And though he can occasionally get hot, Kelly has never been as strong a shooter as his reputation. He’s a career 33% shooter from downtown and is shooting just 30% on the year. 

Still, he’s taken an even bigger dip recently as he’s seen his overall usage rate rise, and he’s having the least efficient season since his sophomore year for the Washington Wizards. He’s only hit three or more 3-pointers in two of his last 10 games and is shooting a grisly 23.2% from the perimeter over that span.

Those struggles are unlikely to abate going against the Los Angeles Clippers. While L.A.’s problems have been manifold to start the season, they’ve consistently been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. They also have more wing-sized defenders than just about anybody, ensuring that Oubre will be contested on any attempts he does fire off on Monday night.

Kelly Oubre Jr. Prop: Under 2.5 made threes (-165)

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