Excuse me while I take my blood pressure for the 15th time in the last two days. The second round has provided plenty of drama, with road teams undefeated, but tonight, it’s time for the home teams to get back on track.
The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to right the ship tonight, and I’m backing both teams to come out hot and set the tone on their respective home courts.
Here are my favorite NBA picks from both games combined into a three-leg parlay for May 7.
Today's best NBA Playoff parlay: May 6
Celtics first half -6.5
Thunder first half -7.5
Nuggets/Thunder Under 229.5
Pick #1: Celtics first half -6.5
The Boston Celtics built a 61-45 halftime lead in Game 1 and went up by as many as 20 points in the third quarter before the New York Knicks went on a huge run and outscored the C’s 43-21 in the fourth quarter and OT.
Boston’s big first half in Game 1 wasn’t an anomaly, as the Celtics outscored the Knicks 251-204 across four regular-season matchups. Boston won three of the four first-half matchups and outscored New York by seven or more points in each of those contests.
There’s plenty of optimism for Boston, as the team missed an NBA-record 45 three-pointers in the loss and shot just 35.1% from the field overall. Positive regression is coming in Game 2.
Pick #2: Thunder first half -7.5
After a seven-game series with the Clippers, the Denver Nuggets came out and earned an improbable win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 thanks to a 71-point second half.
The Thunder won the first half of Game 1 by a score of 60-50 before faltering in the final frames. OKC closed out the regular season with a comfortable lead in the Western Conference standings before sweeping the Grizzlies in the first round. While rest can benefit a team, rust can become an issue with too much time between games.
OKC has its back against the wall, with the risk of falling behind 2-0 heading back to Denver. Expect the team to shake off the rust and play with a major sense of urgency after a heartbreaking loss at home in Game 1.
Pick #3: Nuggets/Thunder Under 229.5
The Thunder and Nuggets combined for 240 points in Game 1, and the teams have hit the Over in three of five matchups this season. Tonight’s point total is set at a modest 229.5, but I like the Under, as I expect the Thunder to clamp down on defense in this one.
OKC boasted the NBA’s best defensive rating this season at 106.6 overall and was tops at home with a 106.3 defensive rating at Paycom Center. The Thunder surrendered 120 points at home in just seven of 41 regular-season matchups, but they’ve given up at least that many to the Nuggets in each of the last two head-to-head matchups.
Oklahoma City faces a tough test against a Nuggets team that sported the fourth-best offensive rating (118.9) and scored the third-most points (120.8) during the regular season. OKC can win tonight with a strong defensive effort, and that’s what I’m expecting.
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