We've got a busy Tuesday night in the NBA playoffs with a quartet of pivotal Game 5 clashes tipping off.
I’ve taken my favorite NBA picks regarding sides and totals and combined them into a pair of three-leg NBA parlays for April 29.
Today's best NBA Playoff parlay: April 29
Bucks Team Total Under 107.5
Magic +11.5
Celtics ML
Pick #1: Bucks team total Under 107.5
The Indiana Pacers can close out their series against the deflated Milwaukee Bucks with a win tonight. The Bucks got some good news two weeks ago when they found out that Damian Lillard would return from a blood clot in this series.
However, that moment of optimism has turned into despair after the All-Star point guard tore his Achilles Tendon in the first quarter of Game 4. With the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee's offense has been pathetic this series and desperately needed Dame's shot-making and passing.
Game 2, when Lillard returned to the lineup and had 14 points with seven assists, was the only game this series in which the Bucks eclipsed their team total. They finished with 115 points in that contest but have failed to score more than 103 points in the other three games of this series.
Pick #2: Magic +11.5
This spread is a bit too wide, considering the last three games saw the Orlando Magic keep things within double digits. That includes a Game 3 upset win in Orlando where the Boston Celtics were missing Jrue Holiday. The veteran point guard is a key player on both ends of the floor and will miss his third-straight game tonight.
Meanwhile, All-Star Jaylen Brown is questionable with a lingering knee injury, and Boston won't rush him back since they are up 3-1 in the series.
A short-handed Celtics squad against a defensively stingy Magic team in what should be another slow-paced contest? Give me the 11.5 points with the dogs.
Pick #3: Celtics moneyline
While I don't think the C's will cover the hefty 11.5-point spread, expect them to win outright. Even without Holiday (or Brown), this team has plenty of firepower and should take care of business at home.
I expected a gentleman's sweep in this series before Game 1, and I haven't seen anything to change my mind about Celtics in five.
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Knicks first-half moneyline
Pistons vs Knicks Over 215
Nuggets +2
Pick #1: Knicks first-half moneyline
The New York Knicks are better than the Detroit Pistons at almost every position, with the exception of point guard, where Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson are essentially a push. While the heavy workload under Tom Thibodeau can lead to fatigue at the end of games, they usually start strong.
The Knicks were fifth in the NBA in first-half scoring margin during the regular season (+3.1 ppg), with that number ticking up to +5.0 ppg at home. They've led at the half in 13 of their last 17 games, including three of four contests this series.
The Pistons have a young team, and their inexperience will be exposed early in this pivotal Game 5 showdown.
Pick #2: Pistons vs Knicks Over 215
These teams combined for just 187 points in Game 4, but expect positive regression from both offenses tonight.
The Knicks went just 19-58 (32.8%) from 2-point range in that contest, which was surprising for a team that had ranked sixth in the NBA in 2-point percentage (55.8%) during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Pistons were 7-for-29 from deep despite New York usually struggling to defend perimeter shots.
The Knicks were fifth in the league in offensive rating during the regular season, and both teams averaged more than 115 ppg. Even with the slower pace in the playoffs, this total is too low.
Pick #3: Nuggets +2
The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers have played the closest series in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The series is tied at two games apiece, and a possession has decided three contests. That has me leaning towards the Nuggets with the points at home.
The elevation at Denver provides one of the best home-court advantages in sports, and the Nuggets were 3-point favorites at Ball Arena in Game 1 while being installed at -1 in Game 2.
It doesn't make sense to see them catching points with the series heading back to Colorado for Game 5.
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