The Washington Wizards remain one of the best NBA betting picks as they push toward a spot in the play-in tournament, riding a three-game ATS windfall into Monday’s home date with the Indiana Pacers.
The Wizards, who sit 10th in the East just behind Indiana, have won 10 of their last 12 games outright while going a lucrative 10-2 ATS in that span. Washington’s two losses have come by a combined four points, including a one-point loss at Dallas as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Wizards on May 3.
Pacers vs Wizards odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonWashington opened as big as -4.5 but early play on the road team slimmed this spread to -3. The total hit the board at 246.5 and dropped slightly to 246 points. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gamePacers at Wizards betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Malcolm Brogdon G (Out), Jermey Lamb G (Questionable), Edmond Sumner G (Questionable), Myles Turner F (Questionable).
Wizards: Deni Avdija F (Out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 17-5 in Pacers’ last 22 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Wizards.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Wizards make a brief pit stop in D.C. to play the Pacers before heading out on a five-game road trip that will see this matchup as their only homestand in an eight-game stretch. Indiana is just 1.5 games ahead of Washington in the standings and is coming off a much-needed win over Oklahoma City on Saturday.
The Pacers are plagued with injuries and had dropped home games to Brooklyn and Portland before getting right versus the Thunder. It’s tough to get a read on Indiana right now. It’s won three of its last five, but those victories have come against terrible teams.
Injuries to the frontcourt have allowed opponents to bully Indiana inside, giving up 58.1 points in the paint per game this month – most in the NBA. In step the Wizards, who thrive on getting deep inside their foes defense, posting a league-high 57.4 points in the paint this month. They’ve been extremely effective getting to the rim, knocking down 67.1 percent of their shots from inside five feet.
What’s more, the Pacers will run with Washington, which could be a mistake. Indiana does a solid job limiting its turnovers despite playing at a 104.51 pace rating in April, but the Wizards have been extremely good at taking tempo to the next gear and causing chaos. Washington is forcing foes into 15.8 turnovers per game in their last dozen outings, converting those mistakes into more than 18 points off turnovers.
This line opened as big as Washington -4.5 and has slimmed to -3 with early sharp play on the Pacers, most likely trying to get ahead of the team’s injury updates. But with a lack of quality wins, it’s tough to trust Indiana now that this spread is going down.
PREDICTION: Washington -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
As mentioned, the Pacers and Wizards are running track-meet tempos this month, ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in pace rating respectively.
The only team pushing the tempo more in April is Oklahoma City, which just produced 247 combined points in a loss to Indiana that topped the 232.5-point total Saturday. The Pacers also beat OKC back on April 21, with that final score blowing through the number. And what do you know: the Wiz went Over in their 129-109 victory against the Thunder on April 23, trumping a 230.5-point O/U.
The Over also hit the last time Indiana and Washington clashed, with the Wizards winning a 132-124 shootout at home that laid the 230.5-point total to waste. But Malcolm Brogdon and his 20.2 points per game will be out of the lineup for the Pacers tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 246 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Wizards’ tempo is complemented by athletic forwards, who can fill the lanes on the fast break but also battle down low. Rui Hachimura is one of those forwards.
The 6-foot-8 Gonzaga product thrives in this setting and has picked it up the past few games since recovering from a nagging knee injury that plagued him for most of April. He scored 18 points in the loss to Dallas on the weekend and will find plenty of room to operate against a depleted Pacers frontcourt.
Hachimura prefers the friendly confines of Capital One Arena, averaging 14.3 points per homestand while shooting 47.5 percent in those contests.
PREDICTION: Rui Hachimura points Over 13.5 (-106)
Pacers vs Wizards betting card
- Washington -3 (-110)
- Over 246 (-110)
- Rui Hachimura points Over 13.5 (-106)
Picks made on 5/3/2021 at 10:20 a.m. ET
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