Pacers vs Magic Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Wagner Wastes Shots from Deep

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Probably the same thing that happens when the all-offense Indiana Pacers head to Florida to take on the glacial, defensive-minded Orlando Magic.

With Tyrese Haliburton at the helm, Indiana plays a beautiful brand of offense while Orlando wants to grind its opponents into dust before Paolo Banchero delivers the coup de grace. It makes for a fascinating clash of styles on Sunday, March 10 and the NBA odds have it as a virtual pick ‘em.

My free NBA picks for the Pacers vs. Magic on March 10 are looking for value in the prop market of Franz Wagner.

Pacers vs Magic odds

Pacers vs Magic predictions

Franz Wagner is one of the load bearing pillars of the Orlando Magic rebuild. He’s an incredibly crafty player, an outstanding finisher, and a solid contributor to one of the NBA’s best defenses. His feel at 6-foot-9 is really strong as well.

But development isn’t linear, and there is a glaring hole in Franz’s game that is only growing bigger and seriously hurting the Magic.

When analyzing the problems plaguing the Magic, their cramped offense is the first and most obvious issue. They’re just 23rd in offensive rating, and that is in large part due to a dearth of shooting up and down the roster. They rank dead last in 3-point attempts and fourth to last in efficiency. 

Wagner is unfortunately part of the problem.

While Franz has never been a big 3-point shooter, recently he's begun to lose all confidence. In the previous Magic game, the New York Knicks abandoned Franz in the corner completely, daring him to hit open shots from the easiest spot on the court. 

He couldn’t make them pay, going 0-for-5 on the night. Wagner has shot just 16.7% from downtown so far in March after shooting only 29% in February. 

Franz averaged 7.5 threes per game in October but is now taking just 4.5 despite opposing teams offering him practically uncontested looks. He’s only made two or more threes twice in the last 11 games.

And unlike New York, the Indiana Pacers won’t just concede open threes to Franz either. The base objective of their defense is to limit opponent 3-point attempts, and they do a good job of it. At 29.3% the Pacers allow the fewest threes as a percentage of total opponent shots of any team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.

With Franz deep in a shooting slump and the Pacers determined to keep him there, I believe these Franz Wagner odds are begging for a wager on the Under.

My best bet: Franz Wagner Under 1.5 threes (-145 at bet365)

Pacers vs Magic same-game parlay

Franz Wagner Under 1.5 threes

Magic -1.5

Pascal Siakam Under 19.5 points

+455 at bet365

While either team could win this game, I just think the Magic have a stronger recent track record to pull from. Orlando is 20-8 against the spread at home this season, which is the best mark in the Association.

It also has a +7.1 point differential over the past two weeks, nearly nine points better than Indiana. While the Magic beat up some lower-echelon teams, they did so convincingly. 

The final leg is less of a bet against Pascal Siakam than it is a vote of confidence in the overall defensive personnel of the Magic. Few teams have as strong a defensive core as Orlando. To have perhaps the NBA’s best per minute defender coming off the bench in Jonathan Isaac is almost an impossible luxury. 

Siakam prefers to do his damage in the paint and the Magic relish walling off the rim. Isaac has the perfect combination of length, dexterity, and strength to make life hard for Pascal. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pacers vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis

While the line for Sunday briefly grew to as high as -2.5 in favor of Orlando, it’s mostly held steady where it is now at -1.5.

The Pacers have a spotty record of late, to say the least. They earned a solid win against the reeling Mavericks but dropped a tight one to the shorthanded Timberwolves and suffered bad losses to the tanking duo of the Spurs and Raptors before that. 

The Magic just suffered a tough loss to New York but had won five in a row before that. While those were all against sub-.500 teams, Orlando is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 compared to just 4-6 by Indiana.

The total has seen significant downward movement. After opening at 230.5, it’s been bet down to as low as 226.5 at some sportsbooks. Given that many Pacers lines have opened in the 245 and above area this season, that’s a strong tribute to the Magic's defense.

But it’s equally damning of their offense. They set the low bar for offensive output this season on Friday when they finished with just 74 points against the Knicks who are still missing two of their best defensive players.

I don’t expect Orlando to be quite that inept against Indiana. In contrast to New York, it'll have size and strength advantages over at most positions.

That said, the Magic tend to impose their will at home, and that’s tended towards low scoring games. The Under is 16-12 in Orlando home games this season.

Pacers vs Magic betting trend to know

The Magic are 20-8 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Magic.

Pacers vs Magic game info

Pacers vs Magic latest injuries

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