The Milwaukee Bucks’ star-crossed season continues. They’re without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo for the foreseeable future, and they’re also going against the Indiana Pacers, a team that has owned them all year long.
The NBA odds suggest this will be a close game but read my free NBA picks and Pacers vs. Bucks predictions to see why I think at least some of Game 1 should produce a lopsided result.
Pacers vs Bucks predictions
My best bet
Pacers second-quarter moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This seems like a nasty draw for the Milwaukee Bucks. Not only do they have to soldier on without their best player after Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a calf strain near the end of the regular season, but they’re playing a team seemingly purpose-built in a laboratory to expose their defensive weaknesses.
The Indiana Pacers won four out of five games in the season series, but I’m wary of putting too much weight on those outcomes.
So much has changed since their last game on January 3. Doc Rivers wasn’t the coach, Bennedict Mathurin was available, Buddy Hield was still a Pacer, and Pascal Siakam wasn’t one yet. Giannis was playing and Tyrese Haliburton hadn’t yet suffered the hamstring injury that has seemingly sapped his production ever since.
Despite all that, evaluating these teams as they are now, a few things become clear.
In those early games, the Pacers almost had a disdain for playing defense. It was as if they wanted to let Milwaukee score so they could go back and score faster and better on the next play. They tried guarding Giannis with players who had no earthly chance of stopping him. It’s no coincidence Giannis averaged 42.2 points (!) in the series.
This version of Indiana is different. This is still a small team, but the Pacers start three stout defenders in Siakam, Myles Turner, and Aaron Nesmith. All of them take some level of pride in their defense and are solid-to-great in their respective defensive roles.
Siakam also gives them an interior punch on offense they sorely lacked. He can post up, draw fouls, and alleviate some of the playmaking burden on Tyrese. TJ McConnell has also stepped up to supercharge the bench units.
The Bucks, meanwhile, have gone from uninspiring under Adrian Griffin to downright troubling under Rivers. They’ve played well when all their best players are healthy, but obviously, that won’t be the case on Sunday with Giannis out.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks are a -5.6 in about 2,600 possessions without Giannis on the court. That’s the point differential of about a 28-win team.
It gets worse: Damian Lillard isn’t going to play all 48 minutes. Even 40 might be asking a lot given his age and injury concerns.
In the nearly 900 possessions Milwaukee played with neither Giannis nor Dame on the court, they're a staggering -15.4. That’s nearly 50% worse than the 14-68 Pistons, who lost 28 straight games this year.
Being that bad for any real period is more than enough to cost the Bucks this game but I think there’s an even better way to bet this matchup.
Lillard follows a fairly standard substitution pattern and has for most of his career. He plays most if not all of the first quarter and takes his longest rest of the game to begin the second.
As such, the Pacers are going to be at a massive advantage for at least a few minutes of the second quarter relative to their already strong chance for the rest of the game. That should be more than enough to tilt the balance in Indiana’s favor in the second frame.
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Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay (SGP)
Pacers moneyline
Pacers second-quarter moneyline
Damian Lillard Under 3.5 threes
Part of the reason I think the Pacers are in a good position to win not just the second quarter, but the game, is the way they can potentially defend Lillard. While the Pacers are not known for their defense, they showed they can push their defensive ceiling quite high during the In-Season Tournament.
They also have strong personnel. Andrew Nembhard is an underrated perimeter defender and Nesmith could even take turns on Dame in a pinch.
The Pacers are also one of the few teams in the Association that will concede drives to shut off the water from behind the arc. Per Cleaning the Glass, they allow fewer opponent 3-point attempts as a portion of their offense than any team — and by a wide margin.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pacers vs Bucks odds
Pacers vs Bucks live odds
Pacers vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +3.5 | Milwaukee -3.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +130 | Milwaukee -175
- Over/Under: Over 238.5 | Under 238.5
Pacers vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened as -3.5 point favorites over Indiana, but that has flipped to -1.5 in favor of the Pacers as of Saturday night.
- The Pacers are 4-1 against the spread vs. the Bucks this season.
- Sunday’s total opened at 238.5 and has been dropping like a stone, dipping to as low as 231.5 at some sportsbooks.
- The Under is 21-17-2 in Pacers road games.
Pacers vs Bucks trend
The Pacers are 4-1 against the spread vs. the Bucks this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
Pacers vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries
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