Nuggets vs Warriors Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Denver's Not Joking

We saw a different Denver team once Nikola Jokic's crew returned to the Rockies but now the series swings back to the Bay Area with Golden State on the verge of advancing. We break down the NBA betting angle with our Nuggets vs. Warriors picks.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 27, 2022 • 18:56 ET • 4 min read
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Betting the NBA Playoffs is like moving into a new house every two or three days. You round up all the shit from the last game and then have to be very scrupulous about what comes with you to the new house. Or, in our case, the next game.

Sizing up Game 5 between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors, bettors must decide whether to carry the one-sided results from the first two games of the series or hug the tighter outcomes of Games 3 and 4 in bubble wrap with Denver getting nine points in the Bay Area tonight.

Remember to lift with your legs when reading our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets at Warriors on April 27.

Nuggets vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Golden State opened as an 8.5-point home favorite for Game 5 and jumped as high as -9 before buyback on Denver slimmed that spread to -8.5 at some shops. The total hit the board at 225.5 points in most markets and has bounced between that number and 226.5 points as we get closer to tipoff.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Warriors predictions

Predictions made on 4/27/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Nuggets vs Warriors game info

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET

Nuggets vs Warriors series odds

Nuggets: +2,200
Warriors: -8,000

Nuggets vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Nuggets: Jamal Murray G (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out).
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Nuggets' last five playoff games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.

Nuggets vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It’s tough not to grab the results from the first two games and run for the door, given that the Dubs won those openers by a collective 36 points. With the series swinging back to San Francisco, bookies are padding that point spread with the biggest line of the series and the fourth-highest spread of the NBA Playoffs.

But the Nuggets team that left the Bay Area shell shocked last week isn’t the same team that showed up in Denver the past two games, namely the efforts of Aaron Gordon and Monte Morris. That pair put up a collective 45 points and nine assists in the Game 4 victory after sleepwalking for most of the minutes in this series.

Their contributions took some of the weight off of the shoulders of MVP Nikola Jokic, who is cementing his status as the best player in the world during this dust-up with the Dubs. Golden State has bothered Jokic at times in Round 1 but hasn’t come close to slowing him down, with the Joker laughing his ass off to the tune of 31 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists per game.

It wasn’t just a boost on offense that got the Nuggets over the hump in Game 4. Denver’s defense made a conscious decision to protect the perimeter and take away the Warriors’ 3-point threats, checking the Dubs to 12 of 34 shooting from beyond the arc. 

While the Warriors scored at a success rate of almost 60% on 2-point field goal attempts Sunday, not allowing them to get hot from outside prevented those game-breaking runs and kept Denver’s head above water as it protected the lead in the second half.

If we’re betting on the Nuggets tonight at this inflated spread, that’s all we’re asking: stay within an arm's length. Denver may not win and avoid the “gentlemen’s sweep” but it can keep this one competitive.

Prediction: Nuggets +9 (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

All four games in this series have topped the total with ease and bookies aren’t playing around for Game 5, upping the Over/Under with an opener of 226 points. That number has since slimmed to as low as 225 as of Wednesday morning.

The Nuggets' offense saw the benefits of home court in the past two outings, with an advanced rating of 118.9 in those games. Truthfully, Denver hasn’t been bad at scoring the ball at home or on the road considering the lack of a true No. 2 option and wishy-washy efforts from its key role players. 

Golden State’s bad shooting from beyond the arc in Game 4 wasn’t just because of the road venue. The Nuggets picked their poison when it came to slowing the Dubs, which is evidenced by the Warriors’ playoff-best effective field goal rate in those Mile High matchups, firing at 61.9% — a slight slump from 63.6% in the two home stands.

Jokic is going to get his and the lid is off for the Nuggets’ role players, who were more aggressive and scored from the foul line, leading to 29 points from 36 free throws. The Warriors’ endless assault will pick up points whichever way they can from whoever is feeling it that night. 

Game 4 saw a pace rating of 101.5 which is on the quick side for this series overall, but the Nuggets want to replicate that intensity tonight. There may not be many clean looks from outside, but between efficient interior play and plenty of scoring with the clock stopped from the charity stripe, Game 5 is just another Over.

Prediction: Over 225.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

A solid team effort and no answer for the MVP has Denver in much better shape than those first two games inside the Chase Center, but books aren’t pricing it as such.

The Nuggets' offense has settled in and the defense is playing smart and making the most of mistakes from the Dubs. They coughed the ball up 15 times in Game 5 and 16 times in Game 4, which Denver translated into 45 total points. 

Do I think that’s enough for the Nuggets to stave off elimination in the belly of the Bay Area beast tonight? Not really. 

Golden State is a playoff-savvy team that knows the value of closing out a series early, especially now with the aging legs of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. However, I do think Denver sends a shot across the bow and stays within the 9-point spread.

Pick: Nuggets +9 (-110 at FanDuel)

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