The Denver Nuggets have made it this far with a short bench. Multiple injuries this postseason have made that bench only shorter. These worries almost certainly doom Denver’s greatest hopes and dreams.
But those hopes and dreams can survive a bit longer if the best player in the world plays like it against the Oklahoma City Thunder in this pivotal Game 7 on Sunday, May 18.
Let’s take a long look at Nikola Jokic picks and Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions before tip at 3:30 ET.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Under 30.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic has fallen short of this point prop in four of the six games in this series. The Oklahoma City Thunder have sacrificed some offensive efficiency at the altar of slowing Jokic. On the defensive end, that has worked for the most part. Jokic scoring 42 points in Game 1 and 44 points in Game 5 is just a testament to how good he is. Keeping him to 29 or fewer in the four other games is a testament to the impact of Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort.
Of course, Hartenstein and Dort are costing the Thunder on the offensive side of the court, but that is a trade Oklahoma City has decided it is comfortable living with.
Even if thinking Jokic may shoulder more of Denver’s scoring burden since this is a Game 7, realize the overall scoring will be lower given the stakes and inherent tensions. Also, realize he scored just 16 points in Game 7 last round. Lastly, realize that he has averaged 10 assists in the six Game 7s in his career while scoring “just” 24.3 points.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Under 30.5 points
Over 8.5 assists
Over 13.5 rebounds
With Hartenstein and Dort on the court to slow Jokic, his best hope in this series has often been to move the ball. Denver has been missing shots — 33.2% from beyond the arc in this series and 41.3% from the field — but Jokic has still been finding open shooters.
Those misses are why he has averaged just six assists in this series, and thus his assists prop is juiced to the Under at -140 at bet365. But an extra day off between games should only help Michael Porter Jr. find some range of motion in his sprained shoulder, and the shocking Game 6 emergence of Julian Strawther may give Denver another quality shooting option.
Those thoughts create some value in Jokic’s assists Over, not to mention the logic of combining it with his points Under.
As for trusting Jokic to crash the glass, that should not need much explanation. Jokic has cleared this prop in three games this series while averaging 14.7 boards, actually down from his regular-season average of 15.8 against Oklahoma City.
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