Even the best player in the world may not be enough for the Denver Nuggets to clinch this first-round series on the road.
The Los Angeles Clippers have the depth and the options to better handle a pivotal game on only a day's turnaround.
Just how quiet will Jokic be at tip at 10:00 p.m. ET tonight? Let's dive into my NBA picks for Thursday, May 1.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
- Best bet
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
(-115 at bet365) - SGP pick
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists
Ivica Zubac Over 18.5 points
(+475 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic may need to pick his moments tonight. The Denver Nuggets superstar has played at least 36 minutes in all five games of this series and more than 43 minutes in three of them.
A toll comes with that workload.
That was why it was so imperative that Denver win in Game 5. That was the last game in this series with an added day of rest, a crucial need for the team with less of a bench and absolute reliance on Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Even in that moment, Jokic scored just 13 points. That was partly because Murray was on fire, pouring in 43 points on 26 shots and hitting 8-of-14 attempts from beyond the arc.
It was also partly because the Los Angeles Clippers continue to present a difficult matchup for Jokic.
Ivica Zubac finished second in Most Improved Player voting and sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. He should have been higher in both.
At 7 feet and 240 pounds, he can hold up against Jokic’s massive frame better than most defenders. Helped by Kawhi Leonard and Kris Dunn, Zubac is never thoroughly on an island against the best player in the world.
This is a difficult matchup for Jokic, hence falling short of this points prop in three of the five games in this series and exceeding it by more than a bucket just once. A do-or-die game for the Clippers should only emphasize that struggle.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists
Ivica Zubac Over 18.5 points
Jokic may struggle to score, but he never entirely fails Denver’s offense. He is simply too good for that. He has dished out 11 assists per game in this series, clearing this prop in four of them.
The only time Jokic scored effectively — 36 points in Game 4 on 14-of-25 shooting — was the only time he fell short of double-digit assists. There is a direct correlation between the two. When he is not finding shots because of Zubac’s and LA’s defense, Jokic knows to move the ball.
Part of LA’s defense is Zubac’s offense, and including him in a Nikola Jokic spotlight article makes sense. Jokic has to defend Zubac. Aaron Gordon presumably could, but who would Denver match up with Kawhi?
Zubac has scored 19 or more points in four of the five games of this series, pushing Jokic to the limit defensively. Expending max energy on both ends of the court becomes too heavy a lift, even for the best player in the world.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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