Mavericks vs Suns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Are Luka & Co. Being Undervalued?

Merry Christmas to the Phoenix Suns. Santa Claus brought them the league’s single-most spotlight-driven superstar: Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.

And while the Suns are mired in a tailspin that's created external headlines of internal frustrations, the Mavs are holding their own even without Doncic’s running buddy, Kyrie Irving.

Yet, Phoenix is favored in the NBA odds to end the NBA’s Christmas Day slate. Let’s unwrap one last present in our free NBA picks as we preview Mavericks vs. Suns on December 25.

Mavericks vs Suns odds

Mavericks vs Suns predictions

How bold do you want to be? No matter the answer, finding a reason to back the Phoenix Suns will be bolder than anything suggested here.

Phoenix is 3-8 outright in its last 11 and 1-10 against the spread. Let’s reiterate that: The Suns have beaten the spread in just one of their last 11 games, beating the Warriors by three points when 1-point underdogs on Dec. 12. Worse yet, Phoenix fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by 9.2 points per game in those 10 ATS losses.

The Suns have fallen out of even the Western Conference play-in at this point. Things are not going well in Phoenix.

Eric Gordon has now said publicly he’d like a bigger role in the offense, a hard reality for the team’s fourth-best option to belatedly realize he must be minimized for the benefit of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

This may get worse before it gets better. It may get much, much worse. These are the perils of superteams.

Enter the Dallas Mavericks. Enter Luka Doncic.

Everyone knows the Slovenian superstar has a flair for the dramatic, particularly when in the spotlight. The last game of Christmas Day certainly qualifies as the spotlight.

A year ago, Doncic scored a ruthlessly efficient 32 points to beat the Lakers 124-115 on Christmas Day, adding nine rebounds and nine assists, all while his then-running mate Spencer Dinwiddie struggled to eight points in 40 minutes.

The boldest choice here would be to take the Mavs on the moneyline, available as high as +166 at FanDuel, but the most logical choice is to bet against the Suns covering the spread yet again.

That path trusts a team in the Top 6 of the West to cover as a multiple-bucket underdog against a team struggling to maintain a positive point differential on the season.

No matter the superteam, no matter the home-court advantage, looking at this game through that lens makes the choice clear.

My best bet: Mavericks +5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Mavericks vs Suns same-game parlay

Mavericks +5

Luka Doncic Over 34.5 points

Over 234.5

No-sweat promo available

+330 at FanDuel

In 11 games without Kyrie Irving this season — sidelined since Dec. 8 with a bruised heel — Luka Doncic has scored 35+ points in seven of them, including four of his last five and five of the seven games during this specific stretch.

Those kinds of outputs are in Luka’s nature, and they are Dallas’s best path to staying in the mix in the West.

Luka should have plenty of scoring chances against the Suns, ranking No. 13 in team defensive rating since Dec. 1, and without a perimeter stopper capable of hanging with Doncic.

Booker and Gordon play hard, but neither is a defensive ace. Relying entirely on Josh Okogie may clog up the court for Booker’s and Durant’s offensive playmaking.

And if Doncic is scoring, the Over makes far too much sense. Since Dwight Powell landed on Irving’s foot, Dallas is only 4-4 O/U, but all four Overs came when the Mavs covered the spread, while all four Unders came when they fell short of bookmakers’ expectations.

Betting on Dallas to cover this spread goes hand-in-hand with betting on Dallas to push this game past its total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Christmas Day games are an NBA anomaly in that their lines have been available for most of the last few months, but those numbers have never really adjusted, despite Dallas’s early-season success and Phoenix’s myriad worries.

This line reached the market with the Suns favored by 5.5 or 6 back in late August, and it fell to -4.5 at some books earlier this month, stabilizing at -5 this week.

Somehow, 28 games of data that Phoenix is a problem for only itself right now did not move this line, not even when put up against 29 games of data that Dallas is a reasonable force.

The total was available at 225.5 back in August, not consistently on the market since then but still actionable sporadically, and when it reached a genuine availability this week, it leaped up to 234.5.

So the books will account for these two’s modest defenses, but they are largely ignoring Phoenix’s struggles through a third of the season.

Mavericks vs Suns betting trend to know

In going 1-10 ATS in its last 11, Phoenix has gone 0-7 ATS as a favorite, losing five of those seven games outright. The Suns are also 0-3 both outright and ATS in that stretch as two-bucket favorites, numbers between -3.5 and -6. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.

Mavericks vs Suns game info

Mavericks vs Suns latest injuries

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