The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs face off for the fourth and final time, and the home team will look to complete the season sweep in the “Battle of Texas” at Frost Bank Center.
Both teams are playing at less than 100%, and my Mavericks vs. Spurs predictions expect points to come at a premium tonight.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this Southwest Division showdown on Friday, April 10.
Mavericks vs Spurs prediction
Mavericks vs Spurs best bet: Under 237 (-110)
With just two games remaining, the San Antonio Spurs have locked up the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. With no chance of its status changing, San Antonio will have no motivation to play its starters for big minutes. Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama are banged up and questionable.
For the Dallas Mavericks, it’s Cooper Flagg or bust - more so than it has been for most of the season. The Mavs will be without most of their frontcourt rotation and several key starters and reserves. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, so the team’s energy may be low.
Dallas’ offensive rating of 109.9 ranks 28th on the season, and San Antonio sports a top-5 defense. The potential absence of Wemby could make it easier for the Mavs to score, but with so few available players, Dallas is going to struggle.
The Spurs are 16-22 to the Under at home, while the Mavericks are 13-26 to the Under on the road. San Antonio has hit the Under in three straight home games, and Dallas has done so in four straight road games.
With both teams dealing with injuries and neither playing for much of anything tonight, I expect the offenses to stall out, leading to a low-scoring contest.
Mavericks vs Spurs same-game parlay
Mavericks vs Spurs same-game parlay
With nothing to play for, it’s going to be tough to keep the Spurs engaged as they look ahead to the playoffs. The Mavericks are a healthy 11-5 ATS as 10-point dogs, and I like them to keep this one competitive as they try to avoid a season sweep by their in-state rivals.
The Mavericks might struggle to score, but Cooper Flagg will have to be the one to do it. He’s reached the 25-point threshold in three of his last four and five of his last nine games while averaging 27.2 points. The Spurs’ defense will be solid tonight, but Flagg has been on a tear and should be taking a lot of shots.
Mavericks vs Spurs SGP
- Under 237
- Mavericks +18.5
- Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Flagg Day!
Dallas is running on empty to close out the season, but the Rookie of the Year favorite is still going strong. Over his last 10 games, Flagg has averaged 7.3 rebounds and five assists.
He’s grabbed 7+ rebounds six times and handed out 5+ assists five times in that span. I expect another strong showing tonight against a Spurs team with nothing to gain.
Mavericks vs Spurs SGP
- Mavericks +18.5
- Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points
- Cooper Flagg Over 6.5 rebounds
- Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists
Mavericks vs Spurs odds
- Spread: Mavericks +18.5 | Spurs -18.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks +1100 | Spurs -2200
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Mavericks vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Spurs.
How to watch Mavericks vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Friday, April 10, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV |
MavsTV, KENS 5 |
Mavericks vs Spurs latest injuries
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