Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks: Big West Battle

Jonas Valanciunas has been on a tear, recording a double-double in 15 straight games while averaging 20.3 points and 13.9 rebounds over his last eight.

Last Updated: Apr 14, 2021 6:30 PM ET
Jonas Valanciunas Memphis Grizzlies NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams trying to avoid a play-in scenario battle it out Wednesday night when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum.

Dallas, the No. 7 seed, is 1.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for sixth, while Memphis occupies the eighth spot in the Western Conference and is 1.5 back of the Mavericks. The Mavs won the first meeting between these two teams back in February and they will play one more time after this.

Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on April 14 at 9:30 p.m. ET. 

Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NBA sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

TwinSpires pegged Dallas a 1.5-point favorite to open and quickly went to -2, then advanced to -3 before receding a tick to -2.5, where the number rests at 6:30 p.m. ET. Point-spread ticket count is just beyond 2/1 and money just beyond 3/1 on the Mavericks. The total is down a notch, from 226 to 225.5, with 65 percent of tickets/72 percent of cash on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Mavericks at Grizzlies betting preview

Injuries

Mavericks: None.
Grizzlies: De'Anthony Melton G (Out), Justise Winslow F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies' last five games as a home underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Grizzlies haven’t been sharp at home but they’ve been dynamite against the spread this season, covering at a 61.5-percent rate, which puts them behind only the NBA-leading Phoenix Suns. 

They’re a tough opponent on a nightly basis and have a deep rotation led by highlight-reel machine Ja Morant and walking double-double threat Jonas Valanciunas, who has been a monster presence down low.

The Mavericks are maddeningly inconsistent but recent trends bode well for them down the stretch, as they rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating since the All-Star break. Memphis can almost say the same thing, as its defense has remained sharp and places it inside the Top 10, while the team is 11th in offensive rating. Over the Grizzlies' last 10 games, a span in which they’ve gone 6-4 SU, they rank fifth. 

Having Luka Doncic steer the ship is a good way to excel on the offensive end, but the Mavs are also getting big production out of Kristaps Porzingis, while Jalen Brunson has been a weapon for them off the bench. He's been efficient from the field, converting more than 50 percent of his shots, while the Mavs as a whole have the fifth-best effective field goal percentage in 19 post-All-Star contests.

This should be a tightly contested affair, as both teams are playing solid ball and have plenty to play for as they claw for a Top-6 seed, which would allow them to bypass the dreaded play-in games. We’re giving the Grizzlies the edge here, though, as they are 32-20 ATS (11-3 over their last 14) and get a Mavs team that has stumbled a bit and dropped three of its last four, including a loss to the Houston Rockets and a blowout defeat to the Philadelphia 76ers two nights ago. 

PREDICTION: Memphis +2 (-110)

Over/Under pick

The Grizzlies have been a strong defensive team all season, ranking seventh in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and they're coming off an 11-point win over the Bulls in which they shutdown All-Stars Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic and held Chicago to 90 points.

While it's unfair to expect any team to slow down Doncic, who's averaging 28.6 points per game (fifth in the NBA), along with 8.6 assists and 8.0 rebounds, Memphis held him to 21-7-7 when the teams met in February and the Grizz would certainly take that again, especially with the way his sidekick has been playing. Porzingis, who sat in the loss to the 76ers, has averaged 24.1 points, 2.6 triples, and 12.0 rebounds per game over his last eight, all marks that are above his season averages. 

With the way these two have been going, Dallas is going to be a difficult team to dispose of when the games matter most if it can keep up its improved play on the defensive end. 

The Over is 9-4 in the Grizzlies' last 13, but a lot of other trends favor the Under. The Under is 5-0 in Memphis' last five games as a home underdog and 14-2 in its last 16 home games versus a team with a winning record. As for the Mavs, they're 1-7 O/U in their last eight contests.

It was a low-scoring game the last time these teams met, with Dallas winning 102-92, and we're expecting a similar result this time around. 

PREDICTION: Under 225.5 (-110)

Player prop pick

Valanciunas has been a force with the Grizz, averaging 17.0 points on 57.6 percent shooting and a career-high 12.7 rebounds per game. He's been crushing it on the offensive glass, ranking third in the NBA with 4.2 offensive boards per contest. The Grizzlies, as a team, excel in this area and are second in the NBA in offensive boards (Dallas is 27th). 

Memphis' big man has double-doubled in 15 straight games and over his last eight has averaged 20.3 points, while hauling in 13.9 rebounds (5.4 on the offensive end). He has shot 64 percent from the field or better in each of his last six contests and put up 34 and 22 two games ago against the Indiana Pacers on a season-high 25 shot attempts. 

Valanciunas is a guaranteed contributor on the boards every night and has offensive upside, going for 20-plus points in four of his last five contests. Expect another big night against a Dallas team that isn't particularly great on the glass.

PREDICTION: Valanciunas Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting card

  • Memphis +2 (-110)
  • Under 225.5 (-110)
  • Valanciunas Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

Picks made 04/14/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET

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